They are in a difficult situation to succeed Joe Biden. A few days before the election, the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the polls is very small. This race for the White House could be one of the closest in history. The two candidates are particularly competing in undecided states that could tip the election one way or another. In these seven key states, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s scores are very close, reinforcing the unpredictable side of the election.
In recent years, polls have continued to be observed, commented on and analyzed in the run-up to elections. During the election of Joe Biden in 2020, the forecasts were correct about the Democrat’s victory. But four years earlier, in 2016, forecasters were predicting greater success for Hillary Clinton. Finally it was Donald Trump who became president of the United States.
In 2020, the forecasts for Biden’s victory were correct
In 2020, the last US election pitted Joe Biden against Donald Trump, then outgoing president. The outcome was less uncertain than in the 2024 duel because Joe Biden was leading the race in the polls several weeks before the election. According five thirty eight, On an American site that compiles dozens of different poll results and compiles an overall average, the Democratic candidate obtained 53.3% of the vote nationally on November 1, two days before the election.
But in the United States the election is not decided by universal suffrage as in France, but rather state by state. The winning candidate is not necessarily the one who attracts popular support but rather the one who achieves the support of the largest number of voters.
Except for Iowa, Joe Biden was in the lead in all key states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Pennsylvania. Precisely in these states the polls were correct since the Democratic candidate won there, which allowed him to access the White House, thanks to the support of 306 voters. Most are set at 270.
In 2016, Donald Trump won by surprise
This victory of Donald Trump in 2016, the polls did not see it coming. Almost all forecasts pointed to Hillary Clinton’s victory. Also according to FiveThirtyEight, the Democratic candidate had a 70% chance of being elected on November 7, 2016, the eve of the election. The American site that compiles the different polls estimates that Hillary Clinton is on track to obtain the support of about 300 voters, that is, 30 more than the majority.
But Donald Trump finally won in certain key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, changing the elections and opening the doors of the White House for him. And this, despite the popular support of Americans for the Democratic camp. As polls predicted, Hillary Clinton received three million more votes than Donald Trump. But it is the latter who wins the elections, with his 304 voters, compared to only 227 for the Democratic candidate.
This example calls for even more caution in light of the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Americans will vote through Nov. 5, but the outcome of the vote may not be known until several days after the last voters have voted.
Source: BFM TV
