A figure that is the subject of much debate. A study published on Thursday, January 9 in the British medical journal The Lancet suggests that the number of deaths in the Gaza Strip during the first nine months of the war between Israel and Hamas is approximately 40% higher than that recorded by the Ministry of Health. in the Palestinian territory.
From the start of the war on October 7, 2023, until June 30, 2024, the Ministry of Health of the Hamas-led Gaza Strip reported a death toll of 37,877.
“We estimate the number of deaths from traumatic injuries at 64,260, (…), suggesting that the Palestinian Ministry of Health underestimated mortality by 41%,” estimates the Lancet study.
This figure represents 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, “or approximately one in every 35 inhabitants,” according to the study.
Mortuary figures, obituaries, etc.
To arrive at this figure, The Lancet claims to have relied on the census of the number of deaths in morgues and hospitals, on an online survey in which Palestinians identify deceased relatives, and on obituaries published on social security networks when The identity of the deceased is unknown. could not be verified. The researchers then examined the death lists for duplicates.
The review specifies that it only counted deaths from traumatic injuries. Therefore, indirect deaths, related in particular to lack of health care or drinking water, or missing persons are not taken into account.
Furthermore, according to the UN, more than 10,000 inhabitants of the Gaza Strip could still be buried under the rubble.
A figure that is debated
On Thursday, the enclave’s Health Ministry said 46,006 people had died during the 15-month war, mainly in Israeli bombings.
These reports, communicated periodically by the Hamas Ministry of Health, are the subject of strong criticism from Israel, which considers the figures to be overestimated. However, the UN considered them reliable.
The United Nations special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese, estimates, in statements to BFMTV, that there is “the possibility, even from outside, of having a fairly precise estimate of the damage caused to the Gaza space” .
“From the satellites we see that most of the territory of Gaza has been completely destroyed,” he emphasizes.
The number of people killed in Gaza has been the subject of intense debate since Israel launched its campaign against Hamas in response to the attack on its territory on October 7, 2023.
Causes of deaths not reported.
Patrick Ball, a statistician with the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group who was not involved in the Lancet study, used the same statistical method as The Lancet to estimate the number of deaths in conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia. This proven technique has long proven effective, he assured AFP, calling the Lancet study a “good estimate.”
Kevin McConway, professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, told AFP that “there is inevitably a lot of uncertainty” when making an estimate from incomplete data.
However, he considered it “admirable” that the researchers used three methods of statistical analysis to verify their estimates. “Overall, I find these estimates reasonably convincing,” he said.
The study authors urged caution, explaining that lists posted by hospitals do not always indicate the cause of death, so it is possible that people with non-traumatic health problems, such as a heart attack, were included, which could lead to an overestimation.
In Israel, the bloody attacks committed by Hamas on October 7, 2023 left 1,208 dead, most of them civilians, according to an AFP count based on official Israeli figures.
Source: BFM TV
