Fifteen days after his previous meetings, he returned to Brussels for Emmanuel Macron and his European counterparts. The EU is organizing its third top of the heads of state this Thursday, March 20 in six weeks and once again it should dedicate a large part of its work to the Ukrainian archive.
If this European Council has been planned for a long time, this meeting recalls the multiplication of initiatives in Europe since Donald Trump operated a large strategic rocking chair, just over a month ago.
His first telephone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin sent a clear message to the former continent: the United States may not be present to protect Europe against an aggressive Russia.
From Paris to London through Brussels, diplomatic frenzy caused by the extended hand of the White House to the Kremlin in Ukraine has rebuilt the maps.
Changing formats
An avalanche of meetings gathered subgroups of countries inside and outside the EU. And when the European bloc was formally found, partners like Great Britain in Canada were informed, since they will be this week again.
On several occasions, NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, joined them, determined to play a facilitator role with the new power in Washington.
These changing formats are also an answer to the challenge raised by Viktor Orban, who claims his proximity to Trump as with Putin and has repeatedly tried to block European initiatives in Ukraine.
For the second time, leaders are preparing to agree this week in Brussels in a statement at 26 to avoid what a senior EU official calls “strategic divergence” with the Hungarian prime minister.
From the great tent to the limited circle, this flexibility of the formats reflects the new coalition that arises around Ukraine, but also the difficulty of significantly strengthening the defense capacities of Europe.
“It is clear that a Europe that defends itself more seriously, but also that it foresees independently, it will want to include new actors such as the United Kingdom, Norway but also Turkey,” explains Ian Tenr, of the reflection group of the German Marshall Fund. The latter also sees in the main maneuvers in progress the opportunity to get a “strongest European pole” inside NATO.
“With the United Kingdom, it really allowed the page to change”
The movement from the United Kingdom to Europe is one of the most spectacular consequences of the disconnection announced in the United States, at a time when attempts after the “restart” after Brexit are fighting to materialize, since the old stubborn income regularly reappears between London and certain European capitals.
But the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, has established himself as a central player in European efforts in an attempt to keep Washington involved in the Ukrainian archive, ensure a high acceptable fire for kyiv and take the question of the security of the continent.
“With the United Kingdom, it really allowed the page to turn, we changed the dimension,” said Camille Grand, of the European Board of Foreign Affairs.
Even if he acknowledges that “tensions will undoubtedly return when it comes to deciding who has access to Europe’s money,” the expert believes that it is a turning point. “The two parties discover that, basically, in very important things, we will find ourselves.”
The end of immutable rules?
The perspective of losing the protection of the United States also caused a small earthquake on a subject of long savement: the rules that frame budget deficits within the EU.
Brussels now wants these fiscal rules to be suspended for four years with, as an objective shown, an increase in defense expenses of 650 billion euros. A time sign: this initiative, which would have caused a few months ago of vigorous protests in many European capitals, was very well received.
Calls to go further, and review this budget “corset”, even Emana from Germany, champion for decades of budget orthodoxy, which is preparing for a historical turning point by supporting the investment plan of the future Friedrich Merz Foreign Minister, who wants to raise and modernize his country with great steps.
An even more radical idea, the latter requested discussions with France and Great Britain about a shared nuclear deterrence, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk showed an interest in access to atomic weapons.
From deterrence to finance, “many taboos have broken in recent weeks,” said Ian injur. But all lines do not move so fast … Germany and the Netherlands remain firmly opposite to a large common loan for defense. This option, inspired by what was done after cavid pandemic, is for many member states the only way the EU really changes the paradigm.
“At the moment, we are not there”, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, Wednesday. “But is it completely excluded? I don’t think so.”
Source: BFM TV
