The world population exceeds 8,000 million inhabitants this Tuesday, according to the official estimate of the United Nations. However, as of July 11, the UN had already announced that the crossing date of this course would be set for November 15. In fact, even if it is reliable, it is only an estimate.
To arrive at this date and this figure, the UN lists a large amount of data from 1950 to the present, about 237 countries or regions. The quality of population estimates and projections depends on the availability of reliable and up-to-date demographic data.
1758 national population censuses
The main source of data, and also the most reliable, is therefore the population census.
“Most countries conduct a census about once a decade,” the UN said.
For the current estimate, the UN considered “the results of 1,758 national population censuses carried out between 1950 and 2022, as well as information from civil registration systems and 2,890 nationally representative sample surveys.”
If the counting habits differ according to the country, there is no longer any that does not count its population. In France, the census is carried out jointly by the State and the municipalities, and coordinated by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee).
Trends in fertility, mortality and migration
However, if these national censuses allow a more or less accurate count to be established, the UN supports its projections with analyzes of historical demographic trends. Therefore, it is based on several other series of international estimates, in particular on trends in fertility, mortality and migration.
In its World Population Outlook 2022 report, the UN also specifies that the Covid-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted the planning and conduct of population censuses. “A recent survey indicated that the pandemic had a negative impact on the preparation, fieldwork or collection phases of the census in approximately 75% of the 111 countries that responded,” the organization writes.
It is by extending these trends that he manages to develop more or less long-term scenarios. Thus, according to projections, the peak of 10,000 million inhabitants could be reached around 2080.
The UN attributes this population growth to “a progressive increase in life span due to advances in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine.”
Source: BFM TV
