A major turning point in the Ukrainian war? Or an “isolated incident”? Caution is advised this Wednesday, the day after an explosion in Przewodow, Poland, not far from the Ukrainian border. Westerners have given their support to Warsaw following the Polish confirmation of a missile that fell in the south-east of the country… and about which there are serious questions.
• A “very powerful” detonation
Poland put its army on high alert on Tuesday after being hit by what it described as a “probably Russian-made” missile of uncertain origin.
The event is significant, because for the first time since the start of the war in February 2022, an explosion was observed outside Ukrainian or Russian territory. And two civilians died.
One of the victims’ relatives, Stanislaw Iwanejko, heard the loud bang. Before the microphone of various media, including BFMTV, he said that he lost his two best friends.
“I was at home and suddenly I heard a very loud noise. I felt right away that maybe it was a war. It was very loud, I don’t know how many decibels,” she said.
• Caution in the West, ongoing investigation
If Volodymyr Zelensky immediately called for a coordinated “action” and a European response, accusing Moscow, the heads of NATO and UN member states were very cautious overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday.
On the sidelines of the G20 in Bali, US President Joe Biden said it was “unlikely” that the missile that hit Poland was launched from Russia.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said at this point there was “equivocal evidence” about who fired the deadly missile.
Even if the projectile is “probably Russian-made”, according to him. “There is an ongoing investigation,” he said, calling it an “isolated” incident.
France, for its part, called for “the greatest caution” about the origin of the missile, not excluding that he could have been Ukrainian. “Given what is at stake, it is logical that we approach the issue with the greatest caution”, stressed the French presidency on the sidelines of the G20 summit, recalling that “the risks of escalation are significant”.
For its part, Moscow has vigorously denied the accusations made by Zelensky and certain Polish officials. “Statements by the Polish media and officials about an alleged Russian missile drop near the city of Przewodow are an intentional provocation with the aim of creating an escalation of the situation,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.
• Paris assures Warsaw of its support
Still, there are many concerns. Throughout the night, NATO member countries and the EU assured Warsaw of their support. Including France. “Poland can count on the support of France and our availability to support the ongoing investigations,” Emmanuel Macron said.
Shortly after 3 am (French time), an emergency G7 meeting between Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and the other leaders of the member countries took place on the sidelines of the G20 in Bali, Indonesia.
At the end of this meeting, the US president announced that Washington and its allies “will determine what exactly happened” on the Polish border.
• Emergency meeting in NATO this Wednesday
A new “emergency meeting” will take place this Wednesday. This time in Brussels, within the framework of NATO: all the ambassadors of the member countries are summoned “to discuss this tragic incident”, declared the Organization’s spokeswoman, Oana Lungescu.
Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty states that if a Member State is the victim of an armed attack, the others will consider this act of violence as an armed attack directed against all members and will take the measures they deem necessary to come to their aid. . of the attacked country.
But without a doubt, Warsaw will request the application of Article 4, which provides for consultations between Allies when one of them considers that its “territorial integrity” or “security” is threatened.
If an attack of Russian origin were confirmed, it would constitute a serious aggravation of the conflict in Ukraine. But the doubts remain serious: and the possibility that the missile that fell in Poland is Ukrainian is not ruled out. If that were the case, “by nature it would not be the same politically,” the Élysée told BFMTV.
“We do our analytical work [dans le cadre de l’Otan, ndlr]“, concludes the French presidency.
Source: BFM TV
