BFMTV survey. War in Ukraine: one in two French judges that there is the risk of world conflict

The international context, and more particularly the war between Russia and Ukraine, which does not seem to be in the resolution process after more than three years of confrontations, causes great concern in part of the French. According to a “live opinion” survey by the Elabe installed for BFMTV and published this Wednesday, May 7, the day before the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, 49% of the questioned French peoples consider that the war between Russia to Ukraine can be transformed into world conflicts that involve most of the great military powers.

In detail, 5% of people asked to consider this “certain” hypothesis, while 44% of them consider it “probable.” On the other hand, 44% of respondents judge this “unlikely” scenario and 6% tell themselves “sure that it will not happen.”

This fear of a globalized conflict is clearly in most among children from 25 to 49 years (60%) and among women (56%), but is much less pronounced on the side of retirees (38%).

The concern of the French also remains very important for countries near Russia, such as Romania, Poland, Finland or Baltic countries. 75% of the French interviewees say they are worried that the conflict in Ukraine progresses these countries, against 76% in an anterior Elabe study for BFMTV published last March.

The fear of propagation in the decrease in France

However, the French surveyed are less concerned than in the past with respect to the risk of seeing the wars extended to France. According to this opinion survey, 54% expresses their concern about it, against 64% two months ago. As Elabe points out, this fall is observable in all categories of the population.

Given this explosive geopolitical situation, more than half (53%) of those questioned judge that the European Union cannot defend themselves in the event that Russia attacks one of the EU member countries, these doubts are the most widespread within the French vote RN (61%) and LR (66%).

Regarding Emmanuel Macron’s action on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, just over four French French (43%) express a positive opinion on this issue. If this rate is, of course, higher in the electorate together (76%), it is 51% among LR voters, 49% among PFN voters and 23% within the RN electorate.

With respect to the other main actors in the geopolitical scene, respectively, 80% and 79% say they have a very bad image of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Volodymyr Zelensky enjoyed a “good image” with 52% of respondents, while 31% of them affect a “bad image” of the Ukrainian president.