The election of Lula da Silva as president of Brazil leaves virtually all of Latin America in the hands of left-wing leaders (12 of the 19 countries, including the region’s five largest economies), after years of right-wing governments. But this new red wave, which began in 2018 with the election of Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is not a repeat of the one that spread across the continent at the beginning of the 21st century.
“There is no red wave, there is an opposing wave,” Andrés Malamud, a researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon, told DN, arguing that the left is now coming to power in response to right-wing policies in an international context of economic crisis. If nothing changes, and given the difficulties faced by several left-wing leaders, the alternation could happen as early as the next election. And what is the difference with the wave of 20 years ago? “The left now has a minority in Congress and on the streets and is rapidly becoming unpopular,” not least because “international economic conditions are less favourable” than they were then.
When progressive movements rose to power in Latin America at the turn of the millennium, they rejected the expansion of neoliberalism, the old Washington Consensus prescription for fighting poverty in the region. Taking advantage of the high price of raw materials, the new leftist presidents took advantage of the economic bonanza to invest in social programs and lift millions out of poverty.
Now they are coming to power in the midst of an economic crisis, with no room for maneuver to repeat the same recipe. Moreover, the leftists are not all the same and there seems to be no desire to seek one voice. “Dialogue yes, integrate no. Democratic left, like Lula’s or Chilean Gabriel Boric, is closer to democratic right, Uruguayan Lacalle Pou or Paraguayan Mario Abdo Benítez, than authoritarian left, Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro or Nicaraguan Daniel Ortega.” reminds Malamud.
Peruvian political scientist Alberto Vergara, from the Universidad Pacifica de Lima, told BBC Mundo that the left is coming to power against the right that has no political project and is not the same as the Washington Consensus. “In the last 10 years, a more radical right has appeared than the economic right of the past. The main concern of this new right is not so much the economy, but the so-called cultural battles”, iindicated. And this may have peaked in Jair Bolsonaro. Similarly, he said, this right had been trying for years to dissuade voters from voting for the left under the threat of turning their country into another Venezuela, “but that tactic no longer worked”.
Brazil
Lula is one of the leaders of the original red wave. He was elected president on the fourth attempt in the 2002 elections with more than 60% of the vote in the second round and was re-elected in 2006. In January 2023, he will take the reins of a deeply divided Brazil after four years of government Jair Bolsonaro, won by 50.9% and about two million votes difference. In addition, it will have a congress with a right-wing majority, forging alliances not only with the so-called “centrão”, but also with representatives of the opponent’s camp – Bolsonaro can be a constant source of problems. Due to the economic crisis, with inflation around 9% and no boom in raw materials, it will not be able to open the government coffers like the first time.
Mexico
Andrés Manuel López Obrador came to power in December 2018 after winning the election by 30 points over his opponent, succeeding conservative Luis Peña Nieto. It would be the start of a new left turn on the continent, despite the fact that the AMLO left (as it is known) is very unique. It is a revolutionary nationalist left, which for many is not even left, as it has adopted neoliberal policies and issues highlighted by the progressive left, be it climate change, domestic violence and others, do not seem to matter. It has an enviable mainland popularity of 56%. His term is only six years and it remains to be seen whether he can choose a successor to carry on the legacy.
Argentina
In 2019, conservative president Maurício Macri was not re-elected, with most Argentines blaming his liberal policies for the economic crisis the country was experiencing. He has always claimed that he inherited the situation from his predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, and her populist Peronist government. Macri’s successor was Alberto Fernández, a “moderate Peronist” who was former chief of staff to Néstor Kirchner (who was part of the first red wave). His deputy is precisely the former president and Néstor’s widow, Cristina. Their relationship is tense and contentious, and she is accused of alleged corruption. New elections are scheduled for October 2023, and Alberto Fernández admits he will not be a candidate if his name stands in the way of another victory for the left.
Venezuela
Nicolás Maduro succeeded the late Hugo Chávez, who had been in power since 1999, in 2013 and was re-elected in 2018. However, the result of these presidential elections was not recognized by the European Union or the US, due to suspicions of electoral fraud, in a country where the opposition is increasingly persecuted and where the economic, political and social crisis is deepening. In January 2019, the new president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared himself interim president, with the support of part of the international community, but Maduro resisted the pressure. Government and opposition are once again negotiating a social deal, at a time when the war in Ukraine has also reopened dialogue between Venezuela and the US – no doubt interested in what are the world’s largest oil reserves.
Chili
Ten years ago, Gabriel Boric was one of the student leaders who took to the streets to demand a new education system. Today he is president – Chile’s youngest ever, aged 36 – after emerging as the new face of the left, beating a far-right candidate in 2022 to succeed conservative Sebastián Piñera (who finished his second term in March closed). 2023). Piñera faced a social uprising in 2019 and eventually launched a constituent process to rewrite the constitution – inherited from the dictator Augusto Pinochet. But the new text, drafted by an assembly dominated by the left and independents, was rejected in a referendum in September as too radical. Boric relied on the new, progressive constitution to carry out his policies, with a popularity rating of less than 30%.
Colombia
Colombians elected a left-wing president for the first time this year. Gustavo Petro, a former member of the April 19 Movement guerrilla movement, participated for the third time and had experience as a deputy, senator and mayor of Bogotá. He succeeded the conservative Iván Duque. In the hundred days of government, his approval is about 50%, although some of his proposals do not enjoy the same popularity – the end of the gasoline subsidy or the increase in taxes. However, the Colombians support his concept of “total peace”, opening peace negotiations with the guerrillas of the National Liberation Army, in a dialogue that also involves drug traffickers.
Nicaragua
The situation is also considered dictatorial in Nicaragua, with former Sandinista guerrilla Daniel Ortega in power since 2007 (he already led the country from 1979 to 1990). Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, have turned Nicaragua into a one-party state — they just won all of the country’s 153 chambers in municipal elections. Ortega amended the constitution to allow for unlimited terms, silenced or shut down virtually all opposition, and controls all branches of the state.
Cuba
The Cuban Revolution of 1959 inspired several generations of leftist leaders. In 2018, Miguel-Díaz Canel became the first president without the surname Castro – after the historical Fidel and his brother Raúl. Canel experienced the largest protests in July 2021 on the island dominated by the Cuban Communist Party.
Honduras
Xiomara Castro became president in January, the first woman in office in Honduras. Her husband, Manuel Zelaya, was in power between 2006 and 2009, when he was overthrown in a coup – the military overthrew him at the request of the Supreme Court for alleged violations of the constitution. Xiomara led the resistance movement, running for president in 2013 and 2017 with what he calls anti-neoliberal “democratic socialism”. It has a popularity of about 62%.
Peru
In the 2021 election, Peruvians elected President Pedro Castillo, a school teacher and Marxist labor leader, in a race with Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori. But Castillo faces an opposition parliament, which has already survived two attempts deposition – a third is already in preparation, for “treason of the fatherland” – in addition to six corruption investigations against him, relatives and political allies.
Bolivia
Former Finance Minister Luis Arce was elected in 2020, in a return to power from former President Evo Morales’ movement to socialism. The former cocalero leader was in his third consecutive term when he stepped down in 2019 and left the country after three weeks of protests over suspected election fraud in what several left-wing governments in the region described as a “coup”. Jeanine Áñez, who succeeded him, was charged with “sedition, terrorism and conspiracy”. Arce is currently facing protests over the date of the country’s census – which could change the representation of the country’s different regions and the funds they receive. Santa Cruz, bastion of the right, is leading protests to advance the census to 2023.
Panama
Laurentino Cortizo, in power since 2019, has a popularity rating of just 20%. The country has had several social protests against government-approved economic cuts. The two former presidents, Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, both from the right, are accused of corruption. Cortizo, 69, has been diagnosed with a rare blood cancer and is being treated in the US.
Source: DN
