Cow that question. Donald Trump will decide a possible American participation in Israel’s strikes against Iran “in the next two weeks,” said the White House on Thursday night. The statement occurs when the president of the United States blows heat and cold with respect to a possible entry of his country in the conflict between Israel and Iran, which is entering his eighth day this Friday, June 20.
“Given the fact that there is a substantial possibility of possible negotiations with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision to go there or not in the next two weeks,” said the US administration.
A little earlier, on Wednesday night, Donald Trump left doubts more than ever about the subject. When asked about a possible entry from the United States in the conflict, the US president had replied: “I can do it, maybe not.”
While Donald Trump called the Iranians on Tuesday to an “unconditional capitulation” and that he claimed that the Americans now had total control of the Iranian airspace, and that the entrance to the United States war seemed close, the US president has fallen since then.
Discussions with Iran pending
Affirming that Iran was close to acquiring the atomic weapon, Israel launched an attack against the Islamic Republic that then represents.
Since then, mortal exchanges have continued and left at least 224 dead on the Iranian side and at least 24 dead on the Israeli side.
These strikes arise while the United States and Iran would begin a sixth cycle of discussions about Iranian nuclear. The possible agreement meant that Tehran stops its nuclear development program in exchange for lifting sanctions that paralyze its economy.
The conversations began this Friday in Switzerland among the foreign ministers of Friday, French, German, British, of the EU and Iranian, mainly on this issue of nuclear.
A president who wants to be Pacific
“Donald Trump is surrounded by people who continue to tell him that it is necessary to carry out a military action against Iran,” said François Géré, a historian specialist in Geostrategia, while Washington has an interventionist tradition and is a historical ally of the Hebrew state.
Despite this pressure, Donald Trump does not bend, at least for the moment, because “he does not want to appear as a man of war,” said the historian.
In fact, during the electoral campaign, the real estate tycoon said that wanting to end military commitments abroad and voluntarily presented himself as a peacemaker, did not hesitate to affirm that the war in Ukraine would end “in 24 hours” if he arrived at the White House.
“As president, my priority is to end conflicts,” he said again on May 15 during a trip to an American base located in Qatar.
“Trump could not make peace in 100 days with Putin and Zelensky, he was very frustrated with all this. The famous Alto El Fuego de Gaza, who was proud before the arrival at the White House, did not remain,” says Yves Doudriaux, former French ambassador to the OSCE and the UN assistant atmosphere, with BFMTV. Therefore, it seems necessary that politically succeeds in a foreign policy issue.
National concerns
For François Géré, Donald Trump prefers not to get too seriously involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel to “leave responsibility (from the note of the military climbing editor) to Benjamin Netanyahu”.
A way for the White House tenant to appear to appear later like the one that “says that it has lasted enough”, after “proposes intercession” and “ends the conflict.”
A gratifying role for Donald Trump and that could also allow him to concentrate on other more urgent national problems for him. “We must make a difference between the thunderous statements of Donald Trump and his true concerns in terms of internal policy,” says François Mané.
According to the latter, the president is “trapped 90% for a kind of civil war in the United States,” he said in reference to the demonstrations against the government’s migration policy that became confrontations with the police.
In fact, the consequences in terms of internal policy also weigh on the balance for Donald Trump. “He still has three years of mandate next year in the mid -period elections and can remain for him” in case of failure, says Patrick Sauce, head of the BFMTV International Service.
Americans who are not favorable to an entrance to war
“For Donald Trump, the calculation is simple: would the US intervention profitable for him?” François Mané summarizes, suggesting that the answer is negative.
Not only could it lead to the retaliation of possible attacks in US bases in the Middle East, but military interventions are currently unpopular to the American population. According to a Yougov survey for the economist, published on Tuesday, June 17, if half of the Americans surveyed say they will go as an enemy of their country, 6 out of 10 claim that the US army should not say in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
“For the average American, the Iranian threat is extremely abstract,” added the historian for whom Russia or China is currently concerned with the population they will go.
“Often, what people do not want is the shipment of soldiers,” said the historian, believing that Americans remain attached to the historical support that the United States provides to Israel and that Washington is already currently in terms of information and anti-absence defense to the Hebrew State.
Avoid scenarios similar to Iraq and Afghanistan
According to anonymous sources in CNN, Donald Trump would also like to avoid a conflict similar to that of Iraq and Afghanistan in which the United States had taken for years.
At the moment, Donald Trump, therefore, favors diplomacy, a method that also allows him to give time and strengthen the US presence in the Middle East. The United States has already deployed its Nimitz aircraft carrier in the region.
“This does not mean that participation will end in an offensive or co-fensive with the famous B2 strategic bomber that can broadcast the GBU-57 bomb, but it is true that if within these 15 days, Donald Trump leaves Israel the possibility of adjusting this case militarily (…), there will be a Iran qualification teacher,” he estimates that Jérôme clech, bfmtvences and po.
Source: BFM TV
