After American attacks, what replica of Tehran? Iran warned on Monday, June 23 that he will respond through a “firm action” to US attacks on the night of June 21 to 22, after having threatened Sunday defending “by all necessary means”, denouncing “extremely dangerous, anarchic and criminal” behavior of the United States.
“There is no red line that would not cross. And the last one, the most dangerous, happened last night. They crossed an important red line attacking nuclear facilities,” Iran warned.
After the US attacks that attacked nuclear sites in Iran, many international forces have reacted, including China, the support of Tehran. Therefore, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged all the protagonists of the conflict on Monday to “avoid a climb (…), to avoid resolved the spread of war and return to the path of political settlement.”
An isolated country on the international scene
What to expect for Beijing for Tehran? Not probably, according to several specialists who remember that Iran is a very isolated country in the international scene.
“Iran is a Persian and Shiite state in a Muslim world mainly Sunita, which makes it a completely separated country,” explains BFMTV.com François Géré, an authorized associate and doctor in the history of international and strategic contemporary relationships in the head of the French Institute for strategic analysis (IFA).
“First he sought to develop a revolutionary activity in all countries with a Shiite population, such as Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon with Hezbollah, so it is perceived for the first time as a disturbing revolutionary state, even if it is no longer today,” added the teacher.
In addition to that, “since October 7 (2023 and the attack on the note of the Hamas editor in Israel), Iran has lost a lot of support in the region,” he says with BFMTV.com Jonathan Piron, historian and specialist in the Middle East, a teacher of the University of Liège, Belgium. Hamas has significantly lost many of his senior officials in the conflict against Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah weakened strongly in this same war.
In the Middle East, Tehran generally has few useful allies or allies. “Iran has made many mistakes by relying on weak allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the hutis in Yemen, which weigh little,” added the president of IFAS.
Economic interests to be protected in the region for Beijing
Regarding China’s hypothetical support, François Mané recalls that Beijing is “relatively little involved in the Middle East”, in general, especially for economic reasons.
China is buying oil from Saudi Arabia in particular, and in a lower way to Iran, and tends to “favor its relationship” with riad and stability in the region for economic reasons, says the director of IFAS.
Beijing also found a “commitment in customs tariffs with Donald Trump” after several weeks of commercial war between the two countries, says François Géré. “So, China does not want to face a Donald Trump who is a hard opponent, but with whom we can get along,” said the specialist.
This Monday, the Chinese Foreign Minister himself insisted on the economic repercussions of a regional conflagration. “The Gulf and its surrounding waters are essential passages for the international trade of goods and energy,” said Guo Jiakun, asking the international community to “redouble their efforts” to prevent regional instability from having a greater impact on global economic development. “
Russia occupied by Ukraine
Iran probably can’t count on Russia’s support. “She has a priority at this time, she is Ukraine,” recalls François Géré. “This is why he dropped Bashar al-Assad” in Syria, after the beginning of the offensive against kyiv in February 2022, said the expert.
“Real capacities (from Russia) are much lower than you imagine. You cannot afford in the Middle East and free the war in Ukraine,” says François Géré.
“Russia has economic interests in particular through the Ormuz Strait”, through which a large part of the world oil and gas trade, Jonathan Piron adds. There is also an “important Russian community in Israel”, which should discourage Moscow from hitting the Hebrew state, adds the historian.
Association partners instead of allies
“Russia and China are not allies in the strict sense” of Iran, summarizes Jonathan Piron. “They are only partners in certain files.”
This Monday’s meeting between Vladimir Putin, who denounced an “assault not caused against Iran”, and Iranian president should not lead to any military action for François Géré. “We are at the level of the political declaration not followed by tangible facts,” he said.
The same goes for North Korea or Cuba, countries that have limited means in any case to face US and Israeli military powers.
“These are temporary allies according to the circumstances, with quite reduced means and divergent interests,” François Mané judges.
An Iranian army that does not weight
A particularly difficult situation for Iran when the country has “a very weak army and an air force,” according to General Jean-Claude Allard, a specialist in defense questions in Iris, he told BFMTV.
Are other solutions for Iran after the American attacks, while Donald Trump claims to be “still interested” this Monday for a diplomatic result in the conflict? For Jean-Claude Allard, blocking the Ormuz Strait appears as a weapon that could become against Tehran’s own interests, an economic provider, at the economic level.
“The attack on the US bases in the Middle East is also a double -edged sword because the Arab world that welcomes these bases would also be attacked,” added the general.
“I prefer to see the so -called intangible and terrorist fields to develop a revenge that specifically touch the Americans. And in the meantime, they would continue to bomb Israel with a sustained and regular rhythm,” he said.
Source: BFM TV
