Autocrats make such a display of their power, wield power with such authoritarianism that it is hard to imagine a world without them. Dictators themselves have traditionally had trouble choosing a successor. However, no one is eternal, and neither are tyrants. An observation that must be going through Vladimir Putin’s head.
Re-elected in 2018 for a term that will run until 2024, and which he is unlikely to see as his last, he nevertheless seems firmly established as president of the Russian Federation. But between his 70 years, the recurring rumors about his health, the inglorious quagmire of his army in Ukraine and the damage done to his personal aura, Vladimir Putin has lost its luster. And the plates of political tectonics are already moving around them: many of them dream of seizing power in turns and getting out of the forest for a better view of the Kremlin, while they wait for the opening.
From the thunderous Chechen Ramzan Kadyrov to the angular Sergei Narychkin, passing through the “historical” Putinian Alexandre Bortnikov, or Sergei Sobianine, supposedly more liberal, who are these men who can aspire to one day replace their master at the head of the State? BFMTV.com presents the gallery of his portraits this Tuesday.
• The “butcher” Kadyrov
It is the most famous internationally, the most moving too. And certainly one of the most violent. Ramzan Kadyrov’s name appears frequently when discussing Vladimir Putin’s possible dolphins.
It must be said that it already takes away a republic: that of Chechnya, of which it is the “head” since the election of Vladimir Putin in 2007, after having been its Prime Minister. His warmongering side, and his cruelty inside and outside its borders, earned him the nickname “Butcher of Chechnya.”
It also represents a true auxiliary force at the military level for Russia. Thus, he sent to the Ukrainian front his “Kadyrovsky“, a few thousand men totally dedicated to their cause and essential to the Russian war effort. Vladimir Putin has even decided to raise his “Butcher” to the rank of colonel general.
An acknowledgment that could have gone to his brain. To the point of criticizing the incompetence, according to him, of the general in chief of the Russian troops in Ukraine, Alexander Lapin, whom he dreamed of seeing demoted. However, the latter was effectively removed in the last days of October. Ramzan Kadyrov likes to present himself as generous, even to his relatives. On October 4, he posted images of his three teenage children in full military training. He assured that they were preparing to go to the front.
At the same time, however, our international affairs columnist, Ulysse Gosset, pointed to some redhibitory traits that would hinder Ramzan Kadyrov’s Russian trajectory if need be: “He’s a Chechen, a Muslim, he can’t claim the title of tsar.” And according to Moscow-based journalist Paul Gogo, in a duplex on BFMTV on Monday night, Russian opinion has a misconception about it: “Ramzan Kadyrov is the head of his little kingdom of Chechnya but he has no influence outside of Chechnya and is not appreciated”.
• Evgueny Prigojine, the “cook” who was cooking something
Also braggart, also violent, also belligerent, Evgueny Prigojine, 61, may have more resources than his Chechen Siamese to navigate the path to power. Speaking of background, his is already atypical. A former thug and prisoner in the twilight of the Soviet era, Evgeny Prigokhine made his fortune from it in catering and became the Kremlin’s purveyor when Putin seized the supreme magistracy. Contract at the origin of his nickname “Poutine cook”.
Subsequently, he diversified his activities, to say the least. Thus, he is the founder of “troll farms”, which strive to destabilize foreign states by spreading fake news and trying to influence electoral processes. Above all, he founded the Wagner group, a company of mercenaries, who sell their weapons, from Africa to Ukraine via Syria. For a long time Yevgueny Prigokhine refused to acknowledge his paternity in these two companies. But everything has changed in recent weeks. The man feels so strong that he opened very official offices in St. Petersburg in October to provide a headquarters for his illegal organization.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is already thinking about the next step, politics. Thus, according to the Russian site Meduza, he is preparing to found a conservative movement. He enjoys a very characterized image in public opinion. “He is someone who is seen as a patriot, on the ground, taking matters into his own hands unlike others who may have seemed to panic at times,” Moscow correspondent Paul Gogo portrayed.
An anti-elite speech that he shares again with Ramzan Kadyrov according to our international editorialist, Thierry Arnaud, who described Monday night on set:
“Both have hit the elite a lot in recent weeks, they denounce a sclerotic, corrupt, soft elite, hideouts of oligarchs who don’t make war and neither do their families, army personnel who would be incompetent.”
• The humiliated Sergei Naryshkin for revenge?
Sergei Narychkin knew a celebrity who would have done well without a few months ago. At the end of February 2022, a few days before the invasion of Ukraine, the 68-year-old man was effectively humiliated on live television by Vladimir Putin during a meeting of the Federation Security Council.
Stammering a harsh speech about his views on the immediate fate of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, Sergei Narychkin had been hounded by questions from a ruthless Vladimir Putin, ordering him to be clearer. He ended, somewhat grudgingly and intimidated, by saying that he was in favor of “the independence of these republics”, implying their clear separation from Ukraine with a view to its annexation to Russian territory.
However, it would be a mistake to make a man of no stature out of Sergei Narychkin. Former Duma chairman, he is now head of foreign intelligence.
• Alexandre Bortnikov, the traveling companion
Alexander Bortnikov is the head of the famous FSB, heir to the KGB. And that, since his appointment by Vladimir Putin in 2008. As TV5 Monde underlines here, the septuagenarian (he is 71 years old) spent his life in counterintelligence, integrating it in 1975. If we do not know the precise date of his meeting with his colleague Vladimir Putin , it is probably higher within these departments where they evolved at the same time. In addition to his responsibilities as a spy, he has a few stripes in the regular army: the Russian president promoted him, in 2006, to army corps general.
United in promotion, Vladimir Putine and Alexandre Bortnikov are also on sanctions. The latter has thus been in the crosshairs of the US Treasury since March 2021 and the attempted poisoning of opponent Alexei Navalny for which he is held responsible.
• Nikolai Patrushev, the “least Putinian”
Nikolai Patrushev is also 71 years old. And he, too, remains associated with the FSB. In fact, it was he who succeeded Vladimir Putin at the head of the institution in 1999 when the latter was called to other heights. Could he repeat the feat, becoming his boss’s legatee for the second time? The latter, in any case, has full confidence in him. The proof, he enthroned him secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. He appears to have had a decisive influence on Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine on February 24.
This is also where the shoe pinches: it is difficult to place this influence among the successes of Nikolai Patrushev. In addition, it is necessary to put into perspective the proximity of him to his leader according to the words of the director Tania Rakhmanova, author ofAt the heart of Russian powera West of France: “The one who is thought to be the weak link, the least Putinian, is Nicolai Patrushev.” A distance that, depending on the circumstances, could be beneficial.
But the journalist Paul Gogo does not believe in these options drawn from the world of “services”. “We imagine the security services supporting Vladimir Putin to the end. They grew up with him, they kept in touch, they are linked to the current situation,” he listed on Monday night in duplex.
• The “liberal” Sergei Sobyanin
A face is missing from this family portrait. It must be said that it contrasts with the rest. Sergei Sobyanin is sometimes mentioned to succeed Vladimir Putin. Mayor of Moscow since 2010, he was born 64 years ago in the Mansis population, a Siberian ethnic group, where he studied politics. He was, then, the governor of thecounty (the region) of Tyumen.
Curiously, this man who owes everything to Vladimir Putin, even holding the position of Director of the Presidential Administration for three years, a kind of equivalent to our Secretary General in the Elysée Palace, passes for a liberal in the eyes of a part of the International. community.
We note that the war and the latest planetary turmoil have caused a great cleansing among the possible replacements for the Russian president. Thus, the ministers (of Defense and Foreign Affairs respectively) Sergei Choigou and Sergei Lavrov seem swept away, out of the race when, at the start of the conflict, they were the only leaders who knew each other, even remotely, outside of Russian territory. One seems threatened by misfortune, the second asks about his state of health.
• And the Prime Minister?
One final scenario remains to be considered: that of a sudden failure of Vladimir Putin. According to the terms of the Russian constitution, the successor of the president of the Federation is designated in case of impediment of the latter: it corresponds to the prime minister to guarantee the interim.
But it is difficult to see the modest Mikhail Michoustine taking the reins of the state. This engineer by training, a specialist in accounting and taxation, does not have the charisma or stature to outshine hypothetical rivals. But do we ever know? After all, the sky remains cloudy over Red Square.
Source: BFM TV
