After the victorious counteroffensive against the city of Kherson, the recapture of Crimea became the new priority for the Ukrainian troops in their war against the Russian invader. This peninsula in southern Ukraine bordered by the Black Sea has, in fact, been an anguish and an affront to Kyiv and the Ukrainian public opinion for eight years.
The region, with a complex history and which the head of the USSR Nikita Khrushchev had incorporated into the Ukrainian Soviet and Socialist Republic in 1954 -without suspecting that the communist empire and its unity would fall apart in less than forty years later-, was in fact, annexed by Russia in 2014. Attached after a referendum that was unclear, to say the least.
And the Ukrainians of this fall of 2022, who are constantly pushing the Russians in front of them, have no intention of laying down their arms before they get their property back. There they multiply the operations. On Tuesday, the pro-Russian governor of Sevastopol accused them of trying to attack a power plant with drones, which their anti-aircraft defense would have overcome.
If this information is not yet confirmed, the Ukrainians had already managed in the spring to sink a key ship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, the Moskva. Just as spectacular, we remember the explosion of the Kerch bridge on October 8. But is the recapture of Crimea even a realistic goal for Volodymyr Zelensky and his people?
political necessity
First, there is the political side of the matter. And he does not bend for the Ukrainian deputy Lesia Vasylenko in a duplex on BFMTV this Wednesday: “It is not only possible but necessary (to reconquer Crimea, editor’s note). Crimea is part of Ukraine. When the Soviet Union dissolved, we proclaimed the independence of several states and we confirmed the borders and that the states would respect these borders.
“Russian aggression is the crime of crimes under international law. Because it is the one that does not allow peace and security in the entire region”, he further argued, before insisting: “Therefore, it is crucial that we reclaim Crimea and that we restore the Ukrainian flag in Sevastopol, Yalta and in all cities – Ukrainian- from Crimea”.
Element that according to Claude Blanchemaison, former French ambassador to Russia, establishes the position of the Ukrainian president on the issue.
“Mr. Zelensky is in an extremely comfortable position. All he has to do is say: ‘I am declaring international law and therefore it is my right to want to recover not only the oblasts (the regions, editor’s note ) annexed by Russia a few weeks ago, and also Crimea annexed eight years ago. For him, the moment is one of combat and not of negotiation,” the diplomat who was stationed in Moscow from 2000 to 2004 explained on BFMTV.
double message
And it is combat that it is about at the moment, as the (alleged) attack by Ukrainian drones on a power plant near the port of Sevastopol on Tuesday reminds us. An assault that the Ukrainian parliamentarian justified in these laconic terms: “Crimea is still Ukraine, and always has been.”
Thierry Arnaud, a foreign policy columnist for BFMTV, offered his own translation of the signal sent by Kyiv: “There is a double message: ‘Crimea is still a target,’ and attacking Sevastopol is tantamount to telling the Russians, ‘You are not safe in nowhere”. .”
The Crimean “peninsula”
But beyond the political necessity, we come up against the military reality. This encourages less optimism according to Thierry Arnaud, who believes that the latest Ukrainian actions will not be enough to reconquer Crimea. He also judged that the recent interventions had a more modest goal.
“Win back no, harass yes.” “And that has been his goal for months. Remembering that Black Sea Fleet flagship that sank in April, an airbase attack in August, the Crimean bridge in October and those multiple drone strikes,” he continued.
Claude Blanchemaison agreed with him. At the moment, a decisive victory of the Ukrainian authorities on this front cannot be foreseen. However, the former ambassador imagines that Volodymyr Zelensky could at least plunging the region into a state of siege and isolating it from the Russian Federation: “It will not return to Crimea, but it can make the Crimean peninsula completely cut off from the outside.”
The Ukrainian hope is all the more difficult to satisfy as it might well resonate in a vacuum on the spot. Or at least awaken a muffled echo. “It is a region that has become quite ‘Russified’. There have been population transfers”, recalled Thierry Arnaud: “There is a Russian, Russian-speaking or simply Russian population”.
The editorialist also noted that Crimea, this “corridor” providing Russia with an additional maritime exit, is not just a symbolic issue for the Kremlin:
“It’s the last part of Ukraine the Russians will want to let go because it occupies an essential geographical position and this base in Sevastopol is a crucial point.”
American friendly advice
Between a Ukrainian renunciation of Crimea, for the moment taboo, and a reconquest, at this capricious stage, of the peninsula, there is, however, a middle ground.
“When the time comes for negotiations, many formulas are possible, such as the one that Mr. Zelensky had considered in March, saying that we could contemplate a system with several deadlines in Crimea, with a referendum in ten or twenty years organized by the UN. “, recalled Claude Blanchemaison.
A negotiated and distant solution that Volodymyr Zelensky, who has made the return of the region to his country a prerequisite for any peace negotiations, does not want to hear about.
However, it may well be forced back to more conciliatory sentiments by external pressure from the international community. A week ago, General Mark Milley, chief of staff of the US army, had tempered the enthusiasm during a press conference: “The probability of a Ukrainian military victory, expelling the Russians from all of Ukraine, including (…) Crimea, militarily, the probability of this happening soon is not very high.”
The officer’s embarrassment was certainly perceptible, but the content is clear. The support of Ukraine’s main ally is unwavering… up to a point. However, it is located on the border of the “Republic of Crimea”. And without international competition, the Ukrainian desire to win it back is likely to seem wishful thinking.
Source: BFM TV
