“Exchanged” territories and lives that run the risk of changing forever. The Ukrainians are with anxiety the results of the summit scheduled for Friday, August 15 in Alaska, between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
The two men will meet for the first time from the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022 to try to find a way to finish the conflict. But Kyiv and European leaders fear that the summit will not lead to an unfavorable result for Ukraine.
The US president has remained vague in his expectations, saying with the hope of a “constructive” meeting with his Russian counterpart. He only insisted that negotiations would be based on an “exchange” of territories between Ukraine and Russia “for the benefit of each one,” according to him.
Towards a complete task of DonBass?
The term “exchange” has something to surprise. The Russian army in fact controls 20% of Ukraine, while kyiv’s army has not occupied any Russian territory since its withdrawal from the Koursk region last March. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine another scenario than that of the Ukrainian territories that would definitely change in the Russian fold.
But which? Currently, the Russian army is present throughout the Oblast of Lougansk (East), as well as in a large part of Donetsk (East), Zaporijia and Kherson (South), without mentioning the Crimean Peninsula Annex in 2014.
According to him Wall Street JournalVladimir Putin told Donald Trump to Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff, who would accept the full fire if Ukraine agreed to withdraw his troops from the East Region of Donetsk. Russia would then control the entire Donbass region, where Moscow’s favorable separatists have been fighting since 2014.
Front line gel
Also according to the Wall Street Journal, the Russian proposal provides a first phase that would make Ukraine retire from Donetsk before a freezing of the Frost line. During a second phase, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump would adapt to a final peace plan, which would then be negotiated with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European sources said by the newspaper.
The partially occupied oblastes in southern Ukraine, Kherson and Zaporijia are also subject to speculation. In these regions, the Russian president would propose to suspend the war in the current first line before negotiating exchanges with Ukraine.
“Russia will not neglect these two oblarts, because they form a land corridor that links the DonBass with Crimea,” says BFMTV Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst and associated researcher at Open Diplomacy.
“It helps open the peninsula that is only connected to the Russian territory by the Kertch bridge,” a building regularly attacked by the Ukrainian forces, he adds.
The risk of “important concessions” in Vladimir Putin
The Russian plan proposed to Donald Trump arouses a great concern in kyiv and European leaders, while the US president has often been permeable to Kremlin’s propaganda.
“They fear that Donald Trump will get involved in large concessions to Vladimir Putin to snatch a high fire. The Ukrainians would be in a situation of extreme weakness before being invited to the negotiating table,” said Ulrich Bounat.
For European leaders, Alto Fire is a previous requirement for any discussion. In a joint press release, France, Italy, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom and the European Commission beg to “the current contact line” be “the starting point of the negotiations.”
Zelensky ready for territorial concessions?
For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky said that “the Ukrainians will not give up their land to the occupants” and that they will not “withdraw from Donbass.” According to Ulrich Bounat, the Ukrainian president suggests that kyiv could leave the areas already under Russian control.
“Ukrainians know for a while, de factoSome territories are under Russian control and will not be recovered by force, “said the researcher.
“It is more or less registered, even if there will never be legal recognition by the Ukrainians than the territories occupied by Russia are Russian territories,” he continues.
For German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Ukraine “is ready to discuss territorial issues” but not “legal recognition” of the occupation of Russia of certain parts of its territory.
“The territorial questions (…) will only be negotiated by the Ukrainian president,” said Emmanuel Macron, for whom “there are no serious, in a serious way, territorial exchange patterns that are on the table.”
In the past, Volodymyr Zelensky had already been said ready for territorial concessions if NATO protects the territories controlled by Ukraine. But since his return to power, Donald Trump has always refused to grant the “security guarantees” claimed by kyiv.
Source: BFM TV
