Officially, it is a visit aimed at strengthening ties between Moscow and Minsk. Unofficially, is Vladimir Putin trying to convince his loyal ally Alexander Lukashenko to become more involved in his “special operation” in Ukraine, which began almost 10 months ago?
This Monday, the Russian president makes an official visit to Belarus, to advance the union between the two countries. There he will be received by his counterpart, who has reigned undisputedly over his country since 1994, and who occupies the place of Moscow’s only support in its war against Ukraine. Does this rare visit by Vladimir Putin, the first in three years, mark a turning point in the conflict?
Belarus, forward base for a future Russian offensive?
“Russia has wanted to create this union with Belarus for a long time,” analyzes Sylvie Bermann, BFMTV diplomacy consultant and former French ambassador to Russia, who recalls that traditionally, it was Alexander Lukashenko who “moved to Russia.” A sign, according to her, that the strong man in the Kremlin seeks “to get Belarus more involved in the conflict.”
Because, if the Minsk troops do not take a direct part in the war, the Russian army uses Belarusian territory to bomb neighboring Ukraine, as kyiv claims. Does Belarus serve as a “launching pad” for a future Moscow winter offensive on Kyiv? In any case, the Ukrainian authorities fear this possibility, in the first months of 2023, from Belarusian territory, repeating the scenario of the start of the invasion, on February 24.
In response, the Ukrainian military is monitoring the Belarusian border in particular, Volodymyr Zelensky even calling, in his daily message on Sunday, the northern border a “constant priority.”
“We are preparing for all possible defense scenarios,” he added, adding that he had discussed this issue during a meeting with the commanders of the Ukrainian forces.
The Russian army, for its part, has already announced on Monday that its soldiers will participate in “tactical exercises” in Belarus. “The final assessment of the capability and combat readiness of the units will be given (…) after the completion of the tactical exercises of the battalions,” the Russian Defense Ministry was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency, without specifying when. and where exactly they will take place.
Lukashenko cautious about going to war
Is Alexander Lukashenko ready to get more involved in this war? In October, Belarus notably announced the formation of a joint force with Russia, and several thousand Russian soldiers had arrived in this former Soviet republic. A deployment that caused fear in Kyiv that the Belarusian troops would join the Russian forces.
However, Belarusian support is not infallible and subject to caution, however, recalls Sylvie Bermann, who stresses that the former Soviet Republic “does not have an experienced army” and that “Belarusians are very divided” on the issue. For Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense adviser for our antenna, the Belarusian soldiers are also cautious.
“They are aware of the difficulties of their army,” says the general, who describes an army of “60,000 men” who must deal with “old equipment.”
“It is clear that this pressure from the Russians on Belarus is mobilizing Ukrainian forces along the border, and that they are not available to Donbass,” underlines the military, for whom it would mean an entry of Belarusian forces into Ukrainian territory. “extremely heavy” losses.
And if Belarus in turn went to war against Ukraine, “we must not forget that its western border is Poland, a member of the European Union and NATO. That would increase tensions in the region”, deciphers General Pellistrandi.
For his part, and on several occasions, Alexander Lukashenko has stated that he is not contemplating -for the moment- sending Belarusian military units to Ukraine.
Source: BFM TV
