Next year could turn out to be one of the hottest on record. According to the United Kingdom meteorological service (Met Office), average temperatures in 2023 will be 1.2 degrees above those recorded before the start of climate change.
If the forecasts are correct, it will be the tenth consecutive year that the global average temperature will be at least one degree higher than the temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900.
From the beginning of that period until today, the warmest year on record has been 2016, the year in which the “El Niño” phenomenon brought that year’s temperatures to the top of the global warming trend.
Adam Scaife, in charge of long-term forecasts at the Met Office, told Britain’s Guardian newspaper that “2023 may not be a record year, but with greenhouse gas emissions rising next year is likely to be another record-breaking one in this series.”
“Global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the lingering effect of the ‘La Niña’ phenomenon, producing cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific,” said Nick Dunstone, forecasting lead at global temperature in 2023 at the Met Office, ensuring that this phenomenon “has a temporary cooling effect on the average temperature”.
But he added: “For next year, our climate model points to the end of a three-year run of ‘La Niña’ influence, with the return of relatively warm conditions in the tropical Pacific.”
“This change is likely to lead to global temperatures in 2023 being warmer than in 2022,” says Nick Dunstone.
Doug Smith, Met Office climate forecasting expert, cautions that “the fact that average global temperatures are at or above 1 degree Celsius over a decade masks the considerable variation in temperature across the globe.”
“Some places in the Arctic have warmed several degrees since the pre-industrial period,” he concludes.
Last year, the Met Office predicted that the average global temperature in 2022 would be between 0.97 and 1.21 degrees Celsius higher than that recorded in the second half of the 19th century. Data for October suggests the temperature is around 1.16 degrees above that period.
Source: TSF
