A rare statement from Russia. Moscow acknowledged its biggest military losses in a single attack in Ukraine on Monday with the deaths of at least 63 soldiers after an attack by the Kyiv army.
This bombardment occurred in Makiivka, a city located in territory long occupied by Moscow, east of Donetsk, one of the strongholds in the hands of pro-Russian separatists since their conflict with Kyiv began in 2014. According to the Defense Ministry spokesman Russian Igor Konashenkov, who did not give a date for the attack, said four missiles were aimed at “a temporary deployment center” for the army. Two other rockets were shot down, he said.
This announcement is exceptional: not only is it the highest death toll in a single attack admitted by Moscow since the start of its invasion in February, but it also represents the first communication on military casualties since September, when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu mentioned 5,937 dead in the ranks of the Russian army.
Ukraine, which admitted having carried out this strike, giving the date of December 31before the New Year, for his part, he advanced contradictory information about the losses of the Russian army in Makiivka.
The strategic communications department of the Ukrainian army spoke on Telegram on Sunday of a balance of 400 dead and 300 wounded. Meanwhile, the staff indicated that it had no definitive information on the number of Russian casualties. Also, “up to 10” the number of military vehicles “of all kinds” were destroyed in this shelling according to Kyiv.
“The loss in terms of personnel is being clarified for the occupants,” he added in a Facebook post on Monday.
Inside a note published on Mondaythe American Institute for the Study of Warfare, a think-tank, reports that the Russian Defense Ministry’s “vague acknowledgment of the attack” has “raised criticism of the Russian military command,” especially among military bloggers.
“Despite several months of war, certain conclusions have not yet been drawn,” says blogger Boris Rojine, close to Ukrainian separatist circles, who criticizes the “incompetence” of the high command of the Russian army. He considers, in particular, that the Russian military personnel, close to the front line, were not sufficiently dispersed in Makiivka.
“The best reaction to the Makiivka tragedy will not only be the search for those responsible, but above all effective and systematic reprisals,” adds the blogger about his telegram channel.
Can such losses make the Ukrainians fear serious reprisals? According to the British Ministry of Defense, “in mid-December, Russian military forces and Wagner’s proxy forces probably increased the frequency of their infantry attacks around the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast,” slightly above Makiivka.
The British Ministry of Defense estimates in its intelligence note on Tuesday that many of the operations undertaken by Russia around Bakhmout in recent weeks “have had little support”, facing “significant reinforcements” from Ukraine.
“Both sides have suffered heavy losses” and “it is unlikely that Russia will make a significant breakthrough near Bakhmout in the coming weeks,” he said.
However, Ukraine fears an increase in power, at least numerically, of the Russian forces in the coming weeks or months. The Center for the Ukrainian Resistance, created by the special forces of the Ukrainian army, states in a post from january 2 that “at the beginning of 2023, the enemy foresees a new wave of mobilization, which will affect the inhabitants of the temporarily occupied South.” In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin decreed the mobilization of approximately 300,000 reservists.
The French Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, also scheduled on Sunday at LCI a “rather terrestrial counterattack” on a “February-March” horizon, relying on the forces mobilized in September. “It is clear that we are going to enter a moment of massification, where the Russians are going to throw all their forces into battle,” said the minister, adding that “the first quarter of 2023 will be quite decisive.”
Source: BFM TV
