Moscow had promised a quick result. From the first days of the “special military operation” launched on February 24 in Ukraine, the Kremlin showed its pretensions and wanted to quickly enter Kyiv to overthrow what Vladimir Putin considered a government of “drug-addicted neo-Nazis”.
More than six months later, it is clear that Russia is being forced to revise its ambitions downwards while the conflict has been frozen for several weeks. Worse yet, the Ukrainian military-led counteroffensive in recent weeks raises questions about kyiv’s ability to reverse the conflict.
• What are the latest moves?
Volodymyr Zelensky himself made the announcement this Sunday. His army has recaptured the strategic city of Izium in eastern Ukraine from Russian forces, where Kyiv is leading a counteroffensive that has broken through Russian lines. An important capture, both at a strategic and symbolic level since this city, which had been one of the first to fall into Russian hands since the first days of the invasion, is an important railway and road hub used for supply of Kremlin forces.
A release that is far from isolated. This same Monday morning, this same Ukrainian army announced that it had seized “more than 20 towns” in 24 hours as part of this counteroffensive.
“During their retreat, the Russian troops hurriedly abandon their positions and flee,” the army said in its report.
Ukraine claims to have recaptured around 3,000 square kilometers of its territory, mainly in the Kharkiv region, since the beginning of September.
• Can we talk about a Russian debacle?
The symbolism of the loss of Izioum is all the stronger as the Russian army has been completely taken from behind in recent days by the Ukrainians.
“What’s spectacular is that the Ukrainians got sidetracked,” says Ulysse Gosset, BFMTV’s defense adviser.
“Vladimir Putin was tricked into thinking they were intervening in Kherson, but it was really a setup. They were preparing the Kharkiv and Izium offensive, they took the Russian generals from behind,” he adds. A trap laid in the greatest secrecy and protected from the media, kept at a good distance from the latest troop movements.
A severe setback for Russia that, together with the withdrawal of its troops, raises serious doubts about the ability of the Russian army to reverse the trend.
“It’s very surprising. I think we have seen a gradual regression of the Russian military from the beginning,” explains Colonel Michel Goya, a defense consultant for BFMTV.
“Depuis juillet, c’est peut-être là le vrai tournant en réalité. On s’aperçoit que les Russes sont usedés, les troupes anciennes ont été usedées et substituted par des recrues de moindre qualité, en moins grand nombre”, poursuit- The.
For General Jérôme Pellistrandi, also a defense consultant for our antenna, it is in fact a “great military fiasco” for Russia that has been facilitated by weapons and military councils sent by the West.
• Will the Ukrainian army be able to win?
Parallel to the successive military defeats of Russia, the Ukrainian army is on the rise. “The liberation of towns from Russian invaders continues in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions,” the army said in its morning report, weeks after Volodymyr Zelensky promised that lands seized by the Russians would one day be Ukrainian again.
This Monday, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, in an interview with World On Monday, for his part, he said that the conflict in Ukraine had entered its “third stage” and that the recent military successes will have a “snowball effect” until the defeat of the Russian army.
“On the one hand we have the Ukrainian troops that are now numerous, the whole nation is in arms, while on the other hand we have a Russian army that has actually continued to decrease in volume,” confirms Michel Goya, as the balance of power seems to reverse with the days
Jérôme Pellistrandi also confirms that “the moral forces are on the Ukrainian side” after a resistance of more than 100 days and a dynamic to retake the territory. However, he wishes to “remain cautious”.
A caution shared on the ground by the population that necessarily regains hope with these multiplying victories, but also hopes to see the long-term consequences. According to BFMTV’s special envoy to the Kharkhiv Benoît Ballet, the Ukrainian population, while rejoicing, prefers to “share things” because, according to them, “the war is far from being won.”
If kyiv has seized 3,000 km², it is estimated that Russia has conquered 80,000 km² of territory since 2014, that is, 20% of the Ukrainian territory.
• What will be the Russian reaction?
During his speech this Sunday, Volodymyr Zelensky directly blamed Russia for the power cuts that affected large areas of eastern Ukraine.
“The goal is to deprive people of light and heat,” he says.
These Russian bombardments of strategic infrastructure occurred just a few hours after the announcement of the new Russian withdrawal. “It’s a pretty classic response from the Russians, who are firing full blast after defeat with an increase in missile strikes. What’s new is a campaign organized around the power cut, they attack a little behind the front, But that won’t work.” change a lot during the current battle”, insists Colonel Michel Goya.
If Russian military strategy is currently difficult to predict, it seems undeniable that the Kremlin has changed its tune. “The discourse has changed, we went from ‘overthrowing the Nazi regime’ to ‘protecting the populations of Donbass’ and now simply ‘keeping the areas under our control'”, recalls, with BFMTV, Ulrich Bounat, a geopolitical analyst specializing in Central and Eastern Europe.
On Russian public television, although inclined to extol the politics of Vladimir Putin, the discourse is also changing.
“What is certain is that the situation is very difficult, but it cannot be simple, it is a private operation. There are deaths, we understand how serious it is, and that there are obstacles”, concludes, fatalistically, Vladimir Soloviov, pro-Kremlin television presenter. This same Kremlin that, this Monday, once again assured that the offensive will continue “until the objectives are achieved.”
Source: BFM TV
