We learned on Wednesday that the troops launched by the Kremlin into Ukraine were going to have a new leader, the third in three months. In fact, the Russian Ministry of Defense has named Valéri Guerassimov commander of its “combined group of troops deployed in Ukraine” by press release, according to the full title. Thus, he replaces Sergei Surovikin, who in turn had taken over this post in October from Alexander Lapin.
Straightening out a badly started war, the need to change profile and counteract the influence of Wagner’s mercenary group, the factors of this crossover orchestrated by Vladimir Putin are multiple. BFMTV.com investigated the matter on Thursday.
The Kremlin takes care of the dressing
Valéri Guerassimov does not appear out of nowhere. He has been Chief of Staff of the Russian armies since 2012. He also laid out the plans for the invasion of Ukraine, which he now leads. And it is this curly profile that very officially wields power to justify this new replacement.
“The Ministry of Defense simply wants to optimize the management of the special operation, since Mr. Guerassimov, who is the Chief of the Defense Staff, is a well-informed and highly experienced soldier who was at the origin of military planning. and that he will now also be responsible for the implementation of these military plans,” Alexander Makogonov, spokesman for the Russian Embassy in France, first presented on BFMTV on Wednesday night, before continuing:
“This appointment is linked to the need to ensure proper coordination of all branches of the military involved in the operation, including the foolproof supply of our troops on the spot.”
degraded by war
“A skilled and experienced soldier” – the hollow portrait of his predecessor Sergei Surovikin, repainted like a partridge of the year, is not flattering. The government press release is even harsher, not hesitating to say it’s about raising the bar:
“The increase in the command level of the special operation (in Ukraine) is linked to an expansion of the scope of the missions to be carried out, to the need for closer interaction between the components of the armed forces.”
The Russian Executive therefore changes its leader because it changes its tone: “the extended special operation” is no longer far from “war”, an evident reality at the front but semantically banished from the speeches dictated by the top of the State. .
However, it is the war – and the spiral of defeats and failures that has shaken the Russian army for almost a year – that has led to the descent of Sergei Surovikin into a simple role of assistant to Valeri Guerassimov. As she had led the vanquished from Kherson, Alexander Lapin, the general-in-chief before him.
Patrick Sauce, a foreign policy columnist for BFMTV, listed Moscow’s military grievances against Sergei Surovikin on Thursday: “He is the man for the change of strategy for the start of the school year. He operated the withdrawal from Kherson but he is also the one who supported this strike strategy on the energy infrastructure”. Two maneuvers that were obviously not decisive.
Worse still, the Russian army suffered a great humiliation under his leadership, our journalist remarked: “It is also the Ukrainian attack on Makiivka – 89 soldiers killed according to the Russian count maybe 400 according to the Ukrainian count – and he certainly pays for this mistake.” .
cumbersome friendship
With the arrival of Valéri Guerassimov, Sergei Surovikin must accept a disavowal of another order: he no longer had the profile. Sergei Surovikin is considered ruthless, for a soldier whose expeditious methods have earned him the nickname “General Armageddon.” Valéri Guerassimov seems more uptight, more skilful. In a word: politics. We even call the “Gerassimov doctrine” an approach to war that does not claim to be exclusively military but hybrid, combining movements on the front lines and a latent media battle, based on disinformation.
Sergei Surovikin’s decline down the chain of command is, in fact, political in more ways than one. Man is a victim of his ambiguities. Because if Colonel Michel Goya, military adviser for BFMTV, stressed Wednesday night in the studio that he was “one of the few generals Putin listened to”, that he and the autocrat had long maintained a “bond special”, we reproach him for having wanted to eat from too many shelves.
Patrick Sauce, our international affairs columnist, has no doubt: “Sourovikine is ‘commercialized’ Prigojine, he is close to the head of the Wagner group.” However, Evgeny Prigokhine and his private militia are making more and more noise and gaining power. So much so that the former annoys Vladimir Putin with his growing political pretensions and the latter embarrasses the regular army. In recent days, the curious verbal ping-pong around the battle of Soledar has shown this quite a bit.
A loyal vassal replaces a suspect
While Wagner has claimed responsibility for the seizure of this city in eastern Ukraine and Yevgueny Prigojine firmly maintains that his men are the only ones involved in this supposed victory, public discourse seeks to reduce the laughter of the latter. “Wagner keeps saying that they are the only unit that has taken Soledar. Now the Ministry of Defense has been saying for two days that the battle continues, although Soledar’s fate may be sealed, but that is not over,” said Patrick Sauce. this Thursday.
The day before, the spokesman of the Russian Embassy in France was even more unpleasant. “You always have to remember that Mr. Prigozhin is not a Russian state official, so when he speaks, he speaks for himself, he gives his private opinion,” he said, adding: “He congratulates himself on a success that is It’s not apparent yet, maybe he’s talking too fast.”
Valéri Guerassimov is more patient. Above all, this faithful of the Russian president does not flirt with Evgueny Prigojine. He gained the confidence of the head of state during the Chechnya war, returned the copy expected of him in Donbass and Ukraine in 2014. Chief of Staff since 2012, he was even appointed Deputy Defense Minister by the Kremlin.
But the relationship is not cloudless. Last March, Gerasimov – like his minister Sergueï Choigou – disappeared for fifteen days, perplexing the world’s media. It is clear that this eclipse did not mark the end of Valéri Guerassimov’s career. The overthrow of Alexander Lapin was not final either: on Tuesday he was even appointed Chief of the Army General Staff. So perhaps it is not too late for Sergei Surovikin to dream of a return to favor and future promotions.
Source: BFM TV
