The invasion of Ukraine has completed the isolation of Russia from the rest of the international community. Or almost. In fact, the Kremlin can still count on some nations, including Iran (and its drones) or China.
At least for the moment, because according to the confidences made by officials of the Chinese regime in financial timesand broadcast in particular on Sky News this Thursday, the communist government is considering changing its policy and letting Russia go.
Beyond strict geopolitical considerations, it is mainly the conduct of the Russian president that fuels these doubts. “Putin is crazy!” even believes one of the executives interviewed by the British newspaper, before continuing: “The decision to invade Ukraine was taken by a very small number of people.”
take the field
In this regard, the Chinese sources consulted are formal: Beijing was not warned of the invasion of Ukraine by its neighbor. However, for more than ten months, China has faithfully played its role as Russia’s partner, refusing to support the sanctions decreed against the latter. But the situation looks increasingly complicated, according to this new statement by a Chinese official in financial times in any case: “China should not follow Russia” in the Ukrainian dossier.
The intentions or hidden motives of the Chinese state in this matter remain quite unclear. But whether it’s making promises to the Westerners, disassociating themselves from Moscow without publicly denying it, or breaking with Russia altogether, the idea is to gain ground against the Kremlin and its leader so as not to be dragged into their eventual downfall and recession. Ukraine.
analysis has changed
This growing Chinese skepticism can be explained by the evolution of Beijing’s military analysis. According to the elements collected by the Anglo-Saxon press, Xi Jinping and his followers no longer believe in the Russian army’s chances of victory, and rather fear that Russia will emerge permanently weakened. The Russian alliance is not so miraculous, however: the war effort significantly disrupts an already shaky Russian economy, and Russia’s diplomatic lockdown is unlikely to help China trade with its other partners.
A few weeks ago, Vladimir Putin said he wanted to strengthen ties with China in order to counter “provocations from the West.” Two are still needed to consolidate bilateral relations.
Source: BFM TV
