The IMF rules out a global recession for this year, having revised global GDP growth slightly upwards to 2.9%, reflecting the resilience of several economies above expectations, but below the 3.4% estimate for 2022 .
In the “Global Economic Forecasts” (WEO), published today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is slightly more optimistic for this year, projecting growth 0.2 percentage points above what it expected in October, reflecting “positive surprises and higher-than-expected growth. expected resilience in various economies”.
The institution led by Kristalina Georgieva therefore forecasts that the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated at 3.4% in 2022, will fall to 2.9% this year, before rising to 3.1% in 2024.
“Negative growth of global GDP or global GDP ‘per capita’ is not expected, which usually occurs when there is a recession,” he says.
However, it points out that global growth projected for 2023 and 2024 is below the annual average of 3.8% in the period 2000-19.
Inflation, the war in Ukraine and the outbreak of covid-19 in China weighed heavily on economic activity last year, warning that the first two factors will remain in 2023.
“The low growth forecast for 2023 reflects the increases by central banks to combat inflation, especially in advanced economies, as well as the war in Ukraine,” he explains.
The decline in growth in 2023 compared to 2022 is influenced by advanced economies, as growth in emerging and developing economies is estimated to have bottomed out in 2022.
The recovery expected in 2024, in both groups of economies, reflects the gradual recovery from the effects of the crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and the reduction in inflation.
Reflecting the dynamics of the international context, with respect to world trade, it is expected to fall to 2.4% in 2023, despite the reduction of supply bottlenecks, before rising to 3.4% in 2024.
For the Bretton Woods institution, the balance of risks to the economic forecast remains tilted to the downside, but downside risks have been moderate since the October report.
On the positive side, it points to a greater boost from pent-up demand in several economies or a faster fall in inflation as plausible. On the downside, he admits that China’s health problems could slow the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate and tighter global financial conditions could worsen the debt problem.
Financial markets can also react suddenly to headwinds about inflation, while further geopolitical fragmentation can undermine economic progress, it adds.
Still, the report notes that despite “headwinds,” real GDP was “surprisingly strong” in the third quarter of 2022 in several economies, including the United States, the eurozone, and major emerging markets and developing economies. developing.
“The sources of these surprises were, in many cases, domestic: stronger-than-expected private consumption and investment amid tight labor markets and higher-than-expected fiscal support.
The IMF forecasts that the GDP of advanced economies will grow 1.2% this year and 1.4% in 2024 and that of emerging markets and developing economies will grow 4% this year and 4.2% in 2024.
The report points to a growth of the North American economy of 1.4% in 2023 and 1% in 2024 and of the euro zone to advance 0.7% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024 and China 5.2 % this year and 4.5% in 2024.
Source: TSF
