“I know we can turn this opportunity into an impressive success. And regardless of the obstacles in the road ahead, I know we will succeed,” then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on January 31, 2020. That night, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union after a long and arduous process. Three years after Brexit, the British regret it, the obstacles are more difficult to overcome than expected: the covid-19 pandemic, the return of the war in Europe, an economic crisis with record inflation and a different policy in which three tenants in six months at No. 10 Downing Street. And even before he is Prime Minister for 100 days, Rishi Sunak faces controversy, not to mention the poisoned legacy that is the Protocol for Northern Ireland.
In the 2016 referendum, Brexit won by 52% to 48%. Today, according to polls on the WhatUKThinks.org website, 58% would vote to be in the European Union, against 42% preferring to stay out. Part of the change in opinion has to do with the change in the electorate – older voters, who mostly voted for Brexit, are dying, while young people, now of voting age, are against it. But it’s not just a demographic issue, there is a “Bregret” – a word that combines Brexit and sorryie repentance. A YouGov poll in November found that one in five who voted for Brexit had changed their minds.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are cited as the main cause of the economic crisis – with inflation rising to 11.1% in October (the highest value in more than 40 years) – for many voters it is clear that Brexit is also to blame. The UK is the only G7 economy that has not yet returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels, and government estimates that leaving the European Union will reduce UK productivity by 4% in the long run.
Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt dismisses the dark scenario, claiming that part of the negative picture is based on statistics that do not reflect the global picture.. And last Friday, he reiterated that the Brexit freedoms enabled the new long-term economic plan.
The minister argues that we need to look beyond the short-term problems companies experience, with more bureaucracy to do business with European neighbours, delays at the borders or the lack of labour, and look at “opportunities for the future” . The economy performed better than expected in December and January, but a recession is not yet completely over.
Inflation drove up the cost of living and sparked an unprecedented wave of protests and strikes. Rishi Sunak marks the 100th day of government on Thursday, following the expiration of Liz Truss’s disastrous 44 days, but has faced discontent. Tomorrow a strike is planned for teachers and transport, as well as other sectors, involving half a million workers, with the opposition portraying millionaire Sunak as far from reality. Polls give Keir Starmer’s Labor a lead of more than 20 points, with the Tories trying to avoid going to the polls ahead of schedule (January 2025).
To make matters worse for Sunak, the controversy surrounding the dismissal of Nadhim Zahawi as Conservative Party chairman and minister without portfolio after it was revealed that he had breached ministerial rules over a lack of fiscal transparency. Zahawi, one of the founders of YouGov and minister to both Johnson and Truss, paid a debt of around £5 million to the IRS but did not disclose that he was the subject of an investigation. spoke in false attacks on his reputation.
He later claimed it was an “omission”, “unintentional”, but the prime minister is being pressured. The question is whether he knew about the investigation into the minister. And the criticism does not only come from the opposition. He has come under attack among conservatives for the perceived speed of the official inquiry he had called for, with Zahawi’s defenders saying he had no time to respond to the allegations (the conclusions came in less than a week).
Sunak said yesterday he acted swiftly by appointing someone to investigate the matter as soon as he learned about it, and removing the minister when he received the findings, expressing his belief that he will be able to “uphold the integrity of the political to recover”.
This is the second minister to lose in less than 100 days (the other was Gavin Williamson), and there is also pressure to remove the deputy, Dominic Raab, accused of bullying. He denies it.
In all cases, Sunak inherited the troubles of the past, just as he inherited the post-Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol. Despite leaving the European Union along with the rest of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland remains part of the single market to avoid a physical border with the Republic of Ireland. Unionists, however, complain that this creates a rift with the rest of the UK and, Conservatives, that the area still remains under the control of European courts.
London and Brussels admit it’s not working and are negotiating but with no deal in sight on the eve of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Accords, which sealed the peace. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland remains without a government after the Sinn Féin nationalists won the election for the first time and the DUP’s trade unionists refused to join the executive, as enshrined in the peace accords signed in 1998. Another headache for Sunak.
Corrected news. The first version stated that leaving the European Union would in the long run reduce the UK economy by 4% in terms of productivity.
Source: DN
