Volodymyr Zelensky first landed in the UK at midday on Wednesday. Between two meetings with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and as a prelude to an interview with King Charles III, he spoke with members of the House of Commons. At the event, the Ukrainian president called for “wings for freedom”, including planes. Words that he repeated to Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz during his reception at the Elysée in the evening, and which will be at the center of his speech this Thursday at the European Parliament and the Council in Brussels.
Because this is, in fact, the main objective of Volodymyr Zelensky’s surprise continental tour: to obtain planes, additional weapons for his country in order to protect itself from the threat of a major Russian offensive. His visit to the Belgian capital should also allow him to learn more about the agenda that will accompany Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.
Planes, “not for now”
On the BFMTV set this Thursday, General Jérôme Pellistrandi, our adviser for military affairs, explained the importance of this hypothetical delivery of aircraft. The officer thus recalled that while Westerners are preparing to transport light and heavy tanks to the front, armored vehicles are engaging an air strike force.
“The tanks that are transferred need air coverage,” he presented.
“The Russian air force is much larger quantitatively than the Ukrainian air force, so the risk is that the delivered tanks will be targeted by the Russian air force,” he added.
Will Volodymyr Zelensky fill up like this with British Eurofighters and French Mirage 2000s? Not so fastnot so fast, they told both sides of the Channel, according to our editorial writer for international issues, Ulysse Gosset.
“Rishi Sunak promised him pilot training, but no planes, not right away,” he explains.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has left his reflection on “the long term” on record, while specifying that “nothing is excluded” in this regard. As for the French position, he is very much in line with that of his British neighbor, as Ulysse Gosset explains.
“The Mirage 2000s could specifically target Russian defenses and Russian gunners to prevent Ukraine from being bombed, but it seems too soon,” he said.
In addition to the German-made Leopard 2 main battle tanks that will arrive from all over Europe, the American Abrams, the lighter French AMX-10 RCs destined for them, Ukraine has, however, obtained another guarantee, this time from the United States: the imminent equipped with long-range missiles capable of attacking behind Russian lines. “These missiles will make it possible to reduce the operational capacity of the Russians, in the coming months”, greeted Ulysse Gosset, who therefore observed:
“All that is missing is planes for the Ukrainians to have the ability to stop Russia from winning this war.”
A “double concern” to raise
Therefore, Western caution may seem incomprehensible. The editorialist identified the two bases: “The concern is double in Europe and the United States. First, Russia is gaining points, and the other concern is that the conflict is spilling over, that Europe is on fire.”
“We are on a ridge line and everyone wants to avoid the fatal gesture that would lead to a new disaster,” Ulysse Gosset slipped.
“It’s about giving Ukraine everything it needs to win this war, in any case to avoid a defeat against Russia without provoking a larger conflict involving NATO, France, the United States. ‘Europe, Germany. That’s right. what is at stake today’.’
Facing the emergency
In addition to these geopolitical fears, we must also consider the question of the logistics and short-term effectiveness of such a solution. Because if the UK sets out to train Ukrainian pilots, it’s a good thing that flying an imported plane or getting used to new equipment takes a bit of time. Nothing impossible, though, according to Xavier Tytelman, a former fighter pilot and now digital editor for Air and Cosmos.
“Giving out combat planes was already done last March. Adapting Western missiles to the MiG 29 is what was done with the AGM 88, so it is also possible,” said the technician on BFMTV.
“But over time they lose planes regularly, Ukrainian fighters continue to fly every day,” he said. Xavier Tytelman deeply regrets this delay, seeing in him a guilty delay: “We always say that it is too late but in reality we would have delivered the tanks -those that will arrive within 2-3 months- in September-October, the great counterattacks: they would have continued the Ukrainian offensives that made it possible to recover 20,000 km2”.
“Either we make a real political choice, go all the way to allow Ukraine to regain its territorial integrity and give them these fighter jets that may arrive in the spring, or we wait until it is too late and they are still suffering, but our slowness is Ukrainians pay with their lives,” he said.
So far from the European Union
Volodymyr Zelensky is also pursuing a more directly political goal. “There is this desire to win the war but also to prepare for peace, the peace that passes through Europe, hence the importance of this visit to Brussels”, launched Ulysse Gosset, who pointed out that the Ukrainian president hoped that “final dates” would be achieved for accession”. process”.
In terms of dates, Ukraine wants a tight schedule. After applying on February 28, 2022, just four days after the Russian aggression, having seen his candidacy officially accepted by club members last June, Kiev said he aspired to become a member “by 2024.” Patrick Martin-Genier, an expert on European politics, shows Ukrainian enthusiasm with BFMTV.com:
“We must be very clear: there is a treaty, and there is no accelerated process.”
“The process is underway,” added our interlocutor, but “it should last about ten years.” The specialist also points out that the Balkan states that are candidates for the EU -Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia- have already been waiting for fifteen years.
Give promises to Europe
From the submission of an application to the ratification of the integration of a new member, there are six stages on the way to the European Union. Ukraine is in the pre-accession phase, and everything indicates that it will not be able to go faster than music, let alone the ode to joy.
“We will have to put order in the Ukrainian house,” said Patrick Martin-Genier.
The expert in the politics of the 27 states that in order to touch the European Holy Grail, it is necessary to rise to the height of the established criteria, that is to say the different “chapters”. And kyiv is out of place:
“Even imagining that we are negotiating with a state at war, they are not prepared. Ukraine is not in a position to have a balanced budget. There is also the question of the rule of law, with the appointment of judges in the European Supreme Court.” Court not really independent of political power and, above all, corruption”, listed Patrick Martin-Genier.
Precisely, the Ukrainian executive has embarked on a gigantic clean hands operation, multiplying dismissals and arrests in its administration and even within the government.
“He wants to give tangible signals to Europe but it won’t happen in a month,” our expert continued.
What the Europeans could promise Zelensky
Therefore, we should not think of a quick accession of Ukraine to the European Union, nor of the publication of a detailed timetable. However, the Ukrainian head of state is not said to leave Brussels empty-handed.
Patrick Martin-Genier thus predicts the alignment of the European Council on Ukraine’s accession to the “European Political Community”, an institution desired by Emmanuel Macron that would allow EU candidates to wait while benefiting in advance from certain European programs, such as the Erasmus Student Exchange or certain funds earmarked for agriculture. Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine definitely have a lot to gain this Thursday.
Source: BFM TV
