The second leg is likely, but the result could well be reversed. At least that’s what we learn from reading the new survey by the institute associated with Emerson University in Boston, which assesses the balance of power for the 2024 US presidential election, measuring in particular the chances of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The survey, carried out on February 24 and 25 of 1,060 people and published this Tuesday, shows that if the current president of the United States faced his predecessor, he would be defeated at this stage.
Trump reinforces his status as favorite
The 45th US president thus leads the 46th by 4 points, with 46% of the projections compared to 42%. The remaining 12% are divided as follows: 7% of the panel assures that they would seek happiness with another candidate, and 5% remain undecided.
Basically, the study just reiterates the conclusions drawn from the survey published last month under the authority of the same university. Except that Donald Trump seems to have further strengthened his favorite status: so he was given the winner by 44% of the opinions expressed compared to 41% of the outgoing ones.
Donald Trump, the best opportunity of the republicans
That’s not the only good news for Donald Trump. It also seems to be the best chance for his team to win, while from the partial exams, observers were betting instead on the equally dextrous but less rowdy Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. In fact, Joe Biden is ahead of the latter by 44 points to 40 (with 9% of respondents preferring “someone else” and 8% undecided).
The man in the White House also trumps, as is, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, with odds 40% to 37% in favor of her opponent (12% would turn the other way, on 11 % would refuse to comment). ).
We note in passing that Nikki Haley has already launched her campaign while Ron DeSantis is just one of the speculations, admittedly insistent, of the hour and has not been officially declared. Joe Biden has also not confirmed his desire to seek re-election at the moment.
the impression of leadership of Donald Trump about his troops is corroborated by projections of future Republican primaries made by the Emerson University team. The billionaire is hailed by 55% of Republican supporters surveyed compared to 25% for Ron DeSantis, who has lost four points in a month, 8% for his former vice president Mike Pence and 5% for Nikki Haley. However, both are up two points since the previous measurement.
Light shadows on the blackboard for the former president
The pollster sought to find out more about the segments of the US population where Donald Trump was building his popularity, and where his speech found the greatest resonance. Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson University polling institute, described:
“Trump’s base is made up of voters whose education stopped at high school or even earlier – a population from which he gathers 72% of support – attracting to him only 45% of those with a college degree, and the 42% of graduates with a bachelor’s degree. grade, two points behind DeSantis.
The specialist then focused his analysis on the base of Donald Trump’s Republican rival: “The strength of the Florida governor is not only among the most educated Republicans, but also among voters over 65, where he leads Trump 43% to 39. moves up 13 points in the Midwestern electorate, trailing Trump by just 8 points in the ranks of 32 in January.”
A trend that may well be important according to Spencer Kimball and represent “a potential problem for Trump to the extent that Republicans look first at Iowa.” It must be said that Iowa traditionally opens the primary process, both Republican and Democratic.
Joe Biden has no competition among Democrats
So if the sky isn’t completely clear for Donald Trump judging by these omens, it’s not hopelessly clear over Joe Biden’s head.
Indeed, he can console himself by pointing out that he is indisputable within his in-laws, although he has been weakened by the discovery of confidential documents at his personal home, that the 80-year-old’s ability to serve a second term is in question and that the announcement of a campaign aimed at his re-election is long overdue.
Thus, among the sympathizers questioned by the institute, 85% of Democrats between the ages of 18 and 34 support it, the other 15% advocate an “other candidacy” from the left. 72% of those between 35 and 49 years of age also support it, compared to 28% of those who are refractory. 61% of 50-64 year olds are also online, while 39% still want an alt champion.
Finally, 67% of Democrats 65 years of age or older envision Joe Biden being re-elected compared to 33% who demand a new face for the presidency.
Emerson University poll, conducted February 24-25, 2023, among 1,060 registered U.S. voters. The margin of error is 2.9 points. Data was weighted by gender, educational level, ethnicity, party affiliation, and region.
Source: BFM TV
