Does the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the clash between the West and Moscow help China or not? On the one hand, the US is diverting attention from the Indo-Pacific, easing the pressure on Beijing, on the other hand, it is clear that if this US determination lasts, Beijing will face serious problems in trying to get Taiwan to reunite by force.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left China in a predicament: It came just 20 days after Putin visited Beijing and proclaimed “borderless friendship,” adding to the fact that he never condemned that invasion or imposed sanctions on Ukraine. side of the aggressor; it is a clear violation of the territorial integrity that Beijing proclaims as a pillar of international security and legality; the global economic picture is deteriorating in a context where China needs to recover economically; enhanced EU-NATO cohesion and re-established US leadership in the “broad West”; weakened its quasi-ally Russia, crucial in China’s global competition with the US; favored the rearmament of US allies, both in Europe and Asia-Pacific; and provides further arguments to those who argue that the US should ramp up arms deliveries to Taiwan. However, Beijing has taken advantage of the situation. From the beginning, Russia became much more politically and economically dependent on China. China has displaced many Western suppliers and bought oil and gas cheaper from Russia, with bilateral trade reaching an all-time high in 2022, up 30% from 2021. And Beijing has tried to promote its narratives and agenda: criticizing the US , NATO and the West; expanding ties with the “Global South”; and preaching the need for a “new world order” and an alternative international security system, as reflected in the “Global Security Initiative” or recent “peace plan.”
Was China’s peace plan for Ukraine on the anniversary of the Russian invasion a desperate attempt by Beijing to once again take center stage in the international system?
Yes, but Beijing also pursues other objectives with this initiative: to prevent the defeat and weakening of Russia, to help Putin find a way out; show that you are against the use of nuclear weapons; warn the US not to antagonize China; depicting himself as a “messenger of peace” courting, in particular, the “Global South” and Europe; and divide the European countries and the Transatlantic Alliance. I believe we have entered a phase where Ukraine could become a war or a “proxy” peace between the US and China.
Is the announcement of an increase in Japan’s military budget, after decades of debate over the revision of the pacifist constitution, a response to the invasion of Ukraine, but more thinking about China than Russia, despite the territorial dispute in the Kuril Islands?
Doubtless. Long before Russia, China and then North Korea are the threats driving Japan’s security and defense policy and are the main reasons why its defense budget needs to increase by 26% between 2022 and 2023 or the 2% of GDP defense target by 2027 – crossing the 1% psychological barrier for the first time since World War II. Japan’s strategic normalization has been gradual for decades and has accelerated in recent years, mainly driven by China’s resurgence and assertiveness. The war in Ukraine, the unprecedented number of North Korean missile tests and the rising geopolitical tensions reinforce the realization that Japan needs more and better military capabilities for its defense and collective security.
How to understand India’s abstention in Russia’s condemnation votes at the UN? Does dependence on cheap Russian oil and Russian weapons count for more than solidarity between democracies?
India’s position is guided by geopolitical calculations. Russia has long been a crucial partner of India and has long been India’s main arms supplier, currently accounting for about half of all Indian arms imports. We should also remember that India stands alongside Russia in “mechanisms without the West” such as the BRICS group or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In addition, India is not only replacing certain Western supplies, but also buying cheaper oil and gas from Russia, whose imports have increased significantly over the past year. Above all, India does not want to offend Russia by not encouraging Moscow’s ties with China and Pakistan in an anti-Indian logic, nor by mortgaging its candidacy for permanent membership in the UN Security Council, nor by damaging relations with other relevant partners. complicate. , from Iran to South Africa.
What importance should you place on the Quad, the informal alliance between the US, Japan, Australia and India, in today’s global context?
Quad was created to balance China’s naval power and maritime security concerns, but in the past two years it has expanded the areas of cooperation from anti-covid vaccines to critical technologies, digital economy, cybersecurity or climate crisis. The scope and objectives of the Quad do not fully coincide between the US, Japan, Australia and India, but this framework is seen by all as a complement to bilateral partnerships and as a counterweight and containment of China. That is why Beijing accuses the US of trying to turn the Quad into an “Asian NATO”.
With an economic growth of only 3% in 2022 and an almost unprecedented demographic contraction, can China still outperform US GDP as expected?
China faces many challenges, but I think it’s only a matter of time before it has the largest economy in the world. China has surpassed US GDP in purchasing power parities for several years, and is the world’s largest exporter and importer and the main trading partner of more than 120 EU countries. In 2019, China overtook the US in patenting for the first time, both through the leadership of the “fourth industrial revolution” and key technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum computing, etc. Economic power will depend on mastering the digital economy and new technologies, and it is in these areas that competition between the two great powers is intensifying.
Does it have any geopolitical value for India to overtake China as the world’s most populous country this year?
In the short term it does not change the balance of power between the two nor their respective positions in the world power hierarchy, but the demographic dimension is a crucial potential and will have implications for the future. India will take the opportunity to take advantage of the fact that the world’s most populous country is now a democracy, attract foreign investment and promote its candidacy for permanent membership in the UN Security Council. It has the advantage of having a very young population, while China’s population is declining and aging. However, the demographic growth of such a large population increases pressure on resources and tends to exacerbate high levels of pollution, and can also exacerbate ethno-religious tensions and chronic problems of poverty and unemployment in India.
Asia, even without Israel, has four nuclear powers. Is there a risk that Japan and South Korea will also equip themselves with a nuclear arsenal to deal with the threats?
The debate exists and is recurring, but I think the internal and external political conditions are not in place for Japan and South Korea to equip themselves with nuclear arsenals in the near future. This would run counter to decades-old policies in favor of non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. Instead of being safer, they could become more insecure as it would provoke very negative reactions from regional neighbors and the world.
Global security debated in Lisbon
With Francisco Seixas da Costa, President of the Clube de Lisboa, and Maja Markovcic Kostelac, Director of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA), giving opening speeches at 9:00 am, the international conference “Safety: from Europe to the Indo – Pacific” will run at the EMSA Auditorium in Lisbon on March 3 and will feature speakers from different countries on the four panels, including Japan, India, Turkey, the US, South Africa and Brazil. The closing ceremony, at 6 p.m., will be performed by Defense Minister Helena Carreiras. The full conference program can be viewed HERE.
Source: DN
