After the death of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, in October 2011, Libya went through several civil wars, which the general public usually summarizes and generalizes as “civil war”. Until the dictator’s death, it was an all-against-one situation, with the population and militia hunting Gaddafi, his family and the few tribes in the Deep South (20% of the total “Praetorian tribes”) loyal to him. stayed. side of the patron. It wasn’t a civil war, it was a moment of unifying consensus against one man and all he stood for, it was a moment of liberating rupture. In such a way that it marked the agenda of the next alignments, as well as the dynamics of sudden changes, a watermark of post-Qaddafi Libya of 124 tribes and three “autonomous regions”!
The first civil war can be found in the summer of 2014, the dispute of which centered on Tripoli airport, disintegrating the Revolutionary Front, previously formed to overthrow Gaddafi. The powerful militias of Zintane and Misrata become enemies, parliamentary elections are held, the situation calms down with the Political Agreement of December 2015 and the entry of the Government of National Unity, recognized by the United Nations and based in Tripoli (Tripolitania). Those who did not recognize this government “made” from the outside and too close to the “Turkish Libyans”, moved to Benghazi and created the division of Cyrenaica (the third “autonomous region” is Fezzan, in the south).
The second civil war, also known as the “war for Tripoli”, begins in April 2019, as a result of this dichotomy of the country, but also and again because of the internal divisions in the “zintanes” and “misratas” shook data and parts of these correspond to Tripoli and parts of others to Benghazi.
The third civil war is an evolution of this division, which has also taken on the dimension of a proxy war between Turkey and Russia, respectively in support of the legitimate government of Tripoli and the rebel government of Benghazi.
What does Libya have to do with Ukraine? All! Why?
Because Russia plays decisive cards on the Ukrainian front, but also on the Syrian front and on the Libyan front. The same fronts on which Turkey plays, with Ukraine as a mediator and Turkish interests in Libya clashing with Russian interests. Precisely for this reason a calmness in the current war scenario in Libya and an act of Turkish President Erdogan as the savior of the African economies through the Grain Agreement with Russians and Ukrainians. It is in this way that Putin gives Erdogan the stage, acknowledging that he holds the key to the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, and guarantees a usable Crimea for Moscow. Once in the Mediterranean, the occupied Ukrainian peninsula will only be able to maintain its usefulness to the Russians with an open Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar. That is why they have to project violence through Tartus and Latakia in Syria (which is why they never left Bashar al-Assad) and now with the Benghazi naval base, which means interfering with the Turkish ambitions, which since 2019 have signed a maritime agreement with the current Government of National Accord, which demarcates the maritime borders between the two countries, as well as the Exclusive Economic Zone, now partially occupied by “Marshal Haftar’s Russians”!
This is also one of the main reasons for the importance of President Erdogan’s victory in the recent Turkish presidential elections. It is imperative to keep the Turkish president with the greats, to have a “NATO president” as a mediator, since he knows that what he cannot do is to put Putin in a dead end, because he has the capacity to do so, on the other side of the Bosphorus. and Dardanelles. As long as these two are the main actors, equilibrium will remain in Ukraine and Libya and the latter will re-emerge in the event of a profound and unexpected imbalance in Ukraine.
Elections 2023
The so-called “6+6 Committee”, the supreme parliamentary council of the state, in line with the UN Support Mission to Libya, is one of the internal fronts with international roots trying to make Libya viable as a country and very recently has played an important role. victory, as on the 7th it was learned from Bouznika, Morocco that they had reached an agreement on the implementation of the electoral laws to be applied in the next parliamentary and presidential elections. As no date has yet been set, it is also imperative that Libya clearly demonstrates its own will to move forward, despite the fact that the Libyans are aware that they are involved in a game even bigger than their own . The 6+6 committee also agrees to form a new government solely to oversee the next elections, a new symptom that they should actually take place by the end of the year. Incidentally, this encounter in Morocco symbolizes that national sense of “make or break”, an “now or never” that has had time to mature and realize that each people is doing it for themselves.
However, a growing separatist feeling in the east, Cyrenaica, is to be expected. With this data, the scenario of a federal Libya can be maintained for the foreseeable future, which will not harm the Libyans in any way, because if such a scenario guarantees peace, everyone wins. The problem is the regional ambitions of the new Turkish Ottomanism and of a growing “Russian Africa”, based mainly on an axis that can be traced north between Cairo and Algiers and which has moved into the Sahel over the past three years. If the Arab Spring enabled a Turkish advance into North Africa, the war in Ukraine is also fueling a Russian advance into the desert and jungle.
Last hour
Despite the fact that the 6+6 Commission has presented an agreement on the electoral laws to be applied, no official announcement has been made, also assuming that there will be objections from the United Nations to a number of agreed points. On the other hand, it is rumored that everything can be related to the fact that they are preparing a two-in-one where they are already announcing a new government that would give the novelty of the new electoral law already with a date for it holding the next elections. In other words, this has been the Libyan scenario since practically 2019, where everything almost always happens and always depends on external wishes, too much at the end of all these years, which has contributed to an anti-foreign, anti-Western feeling.
In Zawiyya, east of Tripoli, fighting between second-line militias continues, with Grand Mufti Sadiq al-Ghariani asking Prime Minister Dbeiba to step up airstrikes. This detail is extremely important and defines another limitation, as it is important for political power to have the amen of religious power. Dbeiba will not be taken fully seriously until it manages to eliminate all skirmishes on its periphery.
Another excellent picture of the state of the institutions is the fact that one million more ID cards have been issued than the number of slips issued for citizens to claim from the issuing authority.
And I will end with the shadow of Colonel Gaddafi, who will remain among the Libyans for many years, to inform you that Hannibal Gaddafi has started a hunger strike this month in protest against the long detention without trial in Lebanon (and not in Libya, it’s not an error). On the other hand, the return of Seif al-Islam Gaddafi makes him a strong candidate, at least for the destabilization of the next election, not ruling out the possibility of a victory or forcing a candidate to a second round. In both scenarios, unequivocal proof of the strength and determination with which this family has shaped the country in its image and will!
Source: DN
