This Monday, car manufacturers signed a new contract with the State in which they mutually commit to ensuring that in 2027 the milestone of 800,000 registrations of new electric cars and 100,000 of utility vehicles is exceeded.
If we base ourselves solely on the evolution of electric car sales between 2022 and 2023, this goal may seem achievable. Don’t we go from 203,122 to 298,522 registered electric cars between 2022 and 2023? If this annual growth rate (+37%) were maintained until 2027, the objective would not only be achieved but exceeded.
More sales with the provision of aid without changes, this requires reducing the amount of the ecological bonus
Except that for several months sales of 100% electric models have stopped growing. In the first four months of 2024, its share in the electricity market (14.5%) is equivalent to that of 2023 (14.6%). While the goal for 2027 is 45%, almost one in two cars. Knowing that companies and rental companies are reluctant to abandon thermal models.
Furthermore, in the contract signed with the car manufacturers, the State certainly undertakes to maintain its financial support but not to increase it. The planned allocation for 2025 will be identical to this year’s, that is, 1.5 billion euros. But this year, with 13,000 euros of subsidy per car sold within the framework of leasing reserved for the most modest French, the State had to limit itself to 50,000 beneficiaries.
Regarding the ecological bonus, the State is committed to maintaining the principle as long as electric cars continue to be more expensive than thermal ones. But with an increasing sales target each year, there will be no other solution than to lower the amount of aid provided by the State for each vehicle purchased.
Peugeot and Renault, big winners of the new aid rules
The only certainty is that the new aid allocation rules will continue to favor European manufacturers to the detriment of models made in China and Tesla. Last year, the three best-selling electric car models in France were, in order, the Tesla Model Y, the Dacia Spring produced in China and the Tesla Model 3.
On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, the race has been dominated by the electric versions of the Peugeot 208 and 2008 followed by the Renault Twingo. And the arrival of the R5 should allow Renault to improve its positions with a model that has everything to attract, including its price (25,000 euros) for the cheapest version. Knowing that the Government’s request to manufacturers is to be able to put models on the market that cost 20,000 euros.
Source: BFM TV
