Although the discounts on State fuels and TotalEnergies end this December 31 at midnight, how will pump prices evolve in 2023?
Difficult to say given the international context and the price of a barrel of crude oil, currently at relatively low levels, which could well rise, particularly with the expected recovery of economic activity in China. Conversely, an economic slowdown could lower the price of black gold.
Diesel more expensive than gasoline since March 2022
Another question: how long will we continue to find diesel more expensive than gasoline in the stations? An abnormal situation, to which we finally got used to since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
As can be seen in the graph below, since the beginning of March 2022, diesel has been priced higher than gasoline, with the exception of a brief period from late May to early June.
“I don’t think diesel will go below gasoline again any time soon. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the markets have been anticipating that we will run out of this fuel and therefore the price is increasing”, sums up Francis. Pousse, president of the service station and new energy branch of the Mobilians trade association.
However, this remains an abnormal situation: historically, diesel, which remains the most consumed fuel in France, has benefited in particular from more advantageous taxation. Taxes (TVE, TICPE and VAT on TICPE) actually represent almost 60% of the price of a liter of 95 unleaded gasoline, compared to 45% for diesel.
Russian diesel embargo in February
A political decision by Europe could also help keep diesel at a higher price than gasoline. Following the EU embargo on Russian oil since early December, imports of Russian diesel will be blocked from February 5, 2023.
Enough to increase the risk of a “mini oil shock”, explained to us in October Patrice Geoffron, director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials (CGEMP), who anticipated a diesel above 2 euros per liter, even to 2.50 euros per liter, with the end of the sales and the high price of oil.
Long awaited, the ban on importing Russian diesel, which in 2021 accounted for no less than 30% of French consumption, was nevertheless anticipated by distributors, which excludes any risk of supply interruption.
“European states did not wait until the end of January to find other suppliers,” stresses Francis Pousse.
A diesel from the Gulf countries, for example, “with higher transport costs, which will also contribute to raising its price at the pump.”
Source: BFM TV
