Boeing plans to double the commercial aircraft fleet in the next 20 years, according to estimates published this Sunday and slightly higher in volume than its competitor Airbus. For the US aircraft manufacturer, 48,575 aircraft will be in service in 2042, up from 24,500 last year. This will require producing, all manufacturers combined, 42,595 aircraft, half of which will be dedicated to replacement of existing aircraft and the other half to net growth.
North America will absorb 23% of these new aircraft, Asia-Pacific 22%, Eurasia 21% and China alone 20%. These projections, published on the eve of the opening of the Bourget Air Show near Paris, are in line with those of Boeing last year, when the firm had mentioned a world fleet of 47,080 planes in 2041.
For Boeing, the low cost “will more than double its size”
On Wednesday, Airbus said it expected a need for 40,850 new passenger and cargo planes by 2042, bringing the global fleet to 46,560 planes, up from 22,880 at the start of 2020. Darren Hulst, Boeing’s commercial marketing manager, said , after the Covid-19 hiatus that has affected demand, “we are moving from the recovery period to a return to the fundamentals that have sustained air travel” for 60 years.
In particular, he mentioned the link between the propensity to travel and global GDP growth, which according to him should reach 2.6% per year, or 70% in two decades, which will push 500 million people into the middle class. , more likely to travel by plane.
Boeing also believes that low-cost airlines will continue to grow in the next 20 years and “more than double in size”, although at a slower pace than in the last 20 years, when its fleet has multiplied by six. Demand for cargo planes should also remain strong, at around 3.5% a year, outpacing the increase in international trade, estimated at 3% a year for 20 years according to Boeing.
Source: BFM TV
