The second quarter of 2023 was marked by record job destruction in the education sector (public and private) and in unspecified areas of public administration, defense and social security, possibly highly qualified and with a high level of education.
However, this negative dynamic was eventually offset by the creation of a very large number of precarious and unskilled jobs, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE)’s new second-quarter employment survey, released yesterday, Wednesday, August 9.
Result: Total employment in the economy actually continued to grow year-on-year (compared to Q2 2022), but uncertainty (fixed-term contracts and others that are even more intermittent) spread and the economy’s average take-home pay as whole, which had only advanced by one euro in the first three months of this year, reflected this loss in job quality and rose to €1,044 per month, according to the INE survey.
It is a salary increase of only 0.5%, well below the inflation rate recorded during the second quarter, according to the new official quarterly figures.
The national average net wage had advanced only one euro in the first quarter, the thinnest record since the first quarter of 2014. This 0.5% increase in the second quarter is the second weakest in the INE series.
According to the institute, total employment in the Portuguese economy increased by 1.6% year-on-year, ie there were 77,600 more jobs in the second quarter than a year earlier. If we look only at the employees, the progress was even greater (2.7%), 110.8 thousand jobs were created.
But, as mentioned, these labor market “dynamics” are explained by trends that are not encouraging and positive.
The education sector (fully accounted for by INE, i.e. public and private, although public schools dominate) was the one that recorded the greatest job destruction, with more than 66,000 net job losses in one year (an annual decline of over 14%), indicates the institute.
The public services sector, where the state has no competition from the private sector (INE calls it “Public Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Security”) recorded the second largest job destruction. Nearly 39,000 jobs disappeared, according to INE.
But tourism and construction seem to be the guarantor of the overall positive evolution of employment in Portugal. “Accommodation, catering and similar” activities created 74.3 thousand jobs, “administrative activities and support services” added 42.3 thousand employees, construction another 40.7 thousand.
Looking at the professions, there is confirmation that the jobs that are being created are mainly at the levels where qualifications and training tend to be weaker. In the most qualified of them all, it’s a real roundup.
From the group of “specialists in intellectual and scientific activities” almost 108 thousand employees disappeared. This is the largest year-on-year decline (down 8.8%) in the 2011 INE series. Even during the troika – when major public service cuts were made – it wasn’t that negative.
But to compensate, the number of “unskilled workers” increased by more than 53 thousand between the second quarter of last year and the same period this year. The group of “personal, security and security services workers and vendors” gained more than 76,600 employees during the same period.
Looking at education levels, it is once again confirmed that those who have studied the most are disappearing from the labor market.
Emigration effect can partly explain
There are analysts and politicians (such as some in the opposition to the government) who are already talking about a recurrence of the emigration effect (which was very acute during the bailout years), but there may also be a demographic dimension. For example, this year’s predicted retirements for public school teachers could be the highest in the past decade.
According to INE, all levels of education are registering job growth, except for graduates. The raid is total: in just one year, Portugal lost 128,000 workers with full higher education. They were minus 7.3% in the second quarter. It is the largest drop in this INE series. Again, even during the Troika, it wasn’t that serious.
Vânia Duarte, from the BPI Research bank, notes that “the unemployment rate is falling again in the second quarter, but all is not well”.
In an analysis sent this Wednesday by the bank’s engineering office, the economist says that “the negative peak goes to the evolution of employment by education level, more specifically, with the year-on-year reduction in the employment of persons with a higher education”.
“Despite the chain increase (2.2% more; 34.5 thousand people more), the year-on-year comparison shows a decrease for the fourth quarter in a row (7.3% less; 128 thousand people less), in contrast to the employment of persons with basic insurance. completed education, which increased by almost 11% (more 171.3 thousand cases),” says the economist.
So “in the second quarter, those with higher education represented 32.8% of the working population, compared to 36% a year ago”.
“This situation should be explained by the emigration of more qualified people”, as “the number of people with higher education has fallen by 8.1% year-on-year (less than 178.2 thousand people)”, the BPI analyst notes .
On time or worse
Moreover, even the most precarious bonds gained a lot of weight. More than 80% of the above-mentioned total job creation in the past year (until the second quarter) is in fixed-term (fixed-term) contracts and “other forms of contract”.
Fixed-term contracts, including contracts for seasonal work and one-off or occasional work, covered more than 68,000 employees (12% year-on-year increase).
Then there is the “other type of contract” category, the most precarious of the precarious, which includes, for example, “fake green receipts”. The increase in this group was almost 18% between the second quarter of last year and the same period of this year, plus 19.7 thousand workers in a vulnerable situation, to say the least.
More teleworking, less unemployment with summer just around the corner
INE also showed that the number of people who telecommute increased by about 3% between the first and second quarter, to about 908.9 thousand employees now.
With the arrival of summer, which stimulates the creation of more seasonal jobs, the unemployment rate has fallen, as it almost always does at this time of year, to 6.1% of the active population.
However, the unemployed population increased significantly year-on-year (compared to Q2 2022), by almost 9%. There are now 324,500 unemployed in Portugal.
Luís Reis Ribeiro is a journalist for Dinheiro Vivo
Source: DN
