The term that families must pay the bank for the house will be increased again for all Euribor-indexed loans, the conditions of which will be reviewed in September. The contracts with a term of 12 months will be most affected by the interest rate increase of the European Central Bank (ECB), which increases the installment by EUR 230.92, i.e. 40% more compared to the EUR 573.29 that was paid exactly one year ago by a loan of 150 thousand euros with a term of 30 years (360 months), indexed to the longest term and with a spread (profit margin of the bank) of 1%, according to a simulation performed by Deco, at the request of Dinheiro Vivo.
This means that after the review in the coming month, this customer will predictably pay EUR 804.21 per month, taking into account the average 12-month Euribor, which should settle at 4.070% at the end of August – which compared to July, the month in which it was 4.149%, it reflects a downward trend. “This is the first time this has happened,” notes Deco.
With a loan with the same conditions, but linked to the six-month Euribor, consumers should see mortgage payments rise to EUR 798.82, an amount that translates into an increase of 9.8%, or EUR 70.97, compared to last month. revision in March, when the value was updated to 727.85 euros. As for the Euribor average over this period, it will have been around 3.940% in the eighth month of the year, stabilizing values compared to July (3.943%).
Finally, regarding the loans taken out for three months – the shortest term – and within the stated criteria, they will start paying another 36.82 euros in September, increasing the installment amount paid to the bank to 784.95 euros , ie an increase of 4.9 euros. % compared to the EUR 748.13 set in June. The average forecast for this August Euribor is 3.780%, showing that the index is still holding “the upward trend of recent months”; in month seven it was 3.672%.
We should not forget that the evolution of the Euribor is directly related to fluctuations in the key ECB interest rates, which have risen significantly since July last year, in an effort by the central bank to fight inflation in the eurozone. In Portugal in particular, the reversal of monetary policy has cost households a lot of money, especially those with mortgage loans, as 90% of these loans have a floating rate, meaning that the mortgage payment goes up or down if the same thing happens. rate that serves as a reference.
Despite the effective increases, which should continue in the coming months, the scenario simulated by Deco shows that the monthly increase in installments is decreasing, which could mean that the Euribor is close to stabilising. If that happens, the amount that households pay to the bank will no longer increase, even if this should not be realized until 2024.
For example, in the contracts revised in August, the monthly fee increased by 6.1% (44.51 euros) for loans linked to the three-month Euribor, by 13.5% (94.75 euros) for six-month loans and by 46.3% (256 .60 euros) within 12 months. Taking into account the expected evolution for September, it is possible to see a decrease in both the average index, which is 3.7 percentage points, and in the longest index, which is six percentage points.
However, if the forecasts come true, “in September there will be a major financial strain on the budget of households with housing loans, which will consequently also lead to a deterioration in their efforts, necessitating financial adjustments,” warns Elisabete Policarpo. a lawyer at Deco’s financial protection firm.
From a balance sheet to the DV, the specialist reveals that the majority of consumers who call on the services of the association are in a situation of regularity with regard to the payment of their credits, and that, as a rule, they have five contracts: two credit cards, two personal loans and one for housing. As for the average amounts owed, they are also advanced, these amount to 21,600 euros in personal loans, 7,900 euros in credit cards and 92,000 euros in home loans.
According to the same official, as a rule, non-compliance occurs first in credit card payments, with housing debt being the last to go unpaid: “As a rule, the home is the priority of families.” Still in this sense, and unlike what happened in previous crises, the Portuguese will now be aware of “preventive action, actively seeking information and solutions to their problems”.
However, it is worth noting that there are already cases involving people who fail to cope with the general rise in prices and accuse budgetary pressure, which puts them at risk of failing to pay the bank not to comply. The increase in the cost of living is the main lever for financial problems – this is because “households, despite the downward trend in inflation, have not yet felt this effect in their pockets”, notes Elisabete Policarpo –, but the loss of income and unemployment are other major consumer-driven causes.
Dinheiro Vivo journalist
Source: DN
