This Tuesday, the OECD raised its global growth forecast for this year to 3% but lowered its forecast for 2024, warning that activity will continue to be affected by inflation and high interest rates next year.
‘The effect of restrictive monetary policy is becoming increasingly visible’notes the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in its quarterly report on the outlook for global growth and inflation, in which it lowers its growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7% (-0.2 points).
As a result, “business and consumer confidence is declining,” the Paris-based institute added in its report entitled “Tackling inflation and weak growth.”
For more than 18 months, central banks around the world have committed to sharply raising interest rates to curb inflation, which has been reignited by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
“One of the most important factors affecting global growth is the increase in interest rates in most major countries since the beginning of 2022”the OECD continues in the report.
However, this growth will be slightly better than previously forecast, with international growth expected at 3%, 0.3 points higher than the June forecast.
This value was driven by several countries, in particular the United States, which managed to achieve growth of 2.2%, 0.6 points more than in June, after a strong second quarter.
The main emerging countries are also driving global economic activity: Brazil is expected to grow by 3.2% (+1.5 points), India by 6.3% (+0.3 points), Russia 0.8% (+ 2.3 points) and South Africa with 0.6% (+0.3 points). ).
Of the ‘Brics’ countries, only the outlook for China has been revised downwards, to 5.1%, a decrease of 0.3 points.
On the other hand, in the eurozone, ‘where demand is already subdued’, according to the OECD, growth is expected to be 0.6% this year, 0.3 points lower than in June, with the weight of Germany, which could get into trouble, could increase. recession, and Italy, whose forecast was lowered by 0.4 points to 0.8%.
However, the eurozone is expected to recover to 1.1% growth in 2024, “as the negative impact of high inflation on incomes fades,” the OECD notes.
Source: DN
