The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimates that global oil demand will continue to increase until March 2045, at a level much higher than it had previously predicted, according to the 2023 edition of its report on the outlook for global oil demand. oil published Monday.
“Our base case sees oil demand reaching 116 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2045, or about 6 mb/d higher” over the period than in a previous estimate for 2022 (109.8 mb/d). /d). j), “and with the potential to be even greater,” indicated the general secretary of the cartel, the Kuwaiti Haitham Al Ghais.
“What is clear is that the world will continue to need more energy in the coming decades,” he stressed in particular in the preamble of this 298-page report published on Monday, unless eight weeks before the start of the UN conference on climate, COP28, which promises fierce debates in Dubai on the future of fossil fuels.
Demand in the coming decades will be driven by non-OECD countries, with India as the main driver, while it will decline from 2025 in the OECD area, according to OPEC.
The OECD calls for abandoning all new hydrocarbon exploration projects
The organization forecasts a 16.5% increase in oil demand by 2045 compared to 2022 (99.6 mb/d). In detail, it would jump to 106.1 mb/d in 2025, 112 in 2030 before experiencing a more moderate increase from 2035, going from 114.4 mb/d to 116 mb/d in 2045.
OPEC’s forecasts are based on a reference scenario that is based on “a realistic approach to energy demand as a whole and oil demand”, highlighting that “there is no single solution to meet global oil growth.” energy needs”, at a time when solar electricity and automobile electrification are experiencing considerable growth.
For OPEC, oil demand can only be satisfied at the expense of investments in the oil sector estimated at 14 trillion dollars until 2045, that is, about 610 billion dollars on average per year.
This scenario appears to contradict that advocated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to allow the world to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and limit global warming to +1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era. In 2021, the OECD agency surprised the world by calling for the immediate abandonment of all new hydrocarbon exploration projects.
OPEC responds with a warning: “calls to suspend investments in new projects are wrong and could lead to energy and economic chaos,” according to Haitham Al Ghais.
Source: BFM TV
