The budget marathon begins on Tuesday in the Assembly chamber with tough battles in perspective over housing, purchasing power and “super benefits”, which should be truncated, as in 2022, by the constitutional weapon of 49.3.
In the absence of an absolute majority in the Bourbon Palace, “there will be 49.3” to approve the 2024 finance bill (PLF) without a vote, agreed the Minister of Public Accounts, Thomas Cazenave, who will defend his first budget. In total, the government should use this tool about ten times to approve the State budget (PLF) and the Social Security budget (PLFSS) before Christmas, with the possibility of maintaining or rejecting the amendments of its choice.
The oppositions may respond with motions of censure, with very little chance of success as long as LR does not join. On Tuesday afternoon, the deputies will address the first part of the PLF, dedicated to State revenues.
Housing tensions
The battles to come have been anticipated during the examination in the Finance Commission, marked by a series of setbacks for the Macronists and a rejection of the text, which could encourage Élisabeth Borne to get 49.3 sooner than expected.
Among the sensitive points of the 2024 budget, housing occupies a prominent place. Many elected officials, including presidential ones, are alarmed by a “social bomb” between the cost of rent and the growing difficulties in accessing real estate loans, due to high interest rates.
To revitalize the sector, Thomas Cazenave indicated that some proposals from the allies of the presidential camp, MoDem and Horizons, will be maintained, such as the reduction from 71% to 50% of the reduction in income from furnished tourist accommodation (Airbnb type). , after many coastal towns complain about the lack of available housing, due to the explosion of short-term rentals. Not enough for the left that would like to attack this “Airbnb tax niche” more forcefully.
The MoDem, some Renaissance and the opposition are also pushing to prevent the government from reorienting the “zero interest loan” system in “tense areas.” “This will continue to prevent a certain number of people from purchasing” a home, considers LR Véronique Louwagie.
Super benefits are still on the table
Another great element: the left wants to return to the charge on “tax justice”, asking that the “super profits” of large companies be taxed. Left-wing elected officials gladly support the proposals of the leader of the MoDem group, Jean-Paul Mattei, who last year called for a tax on “super dividends” and this year calls for an increase in taxes during acquisitions of the largest companies . .of his own actions.
But the government is sticking to its pro-business “bid” policy and rejected the super-dividend amendment last year, despite its passage in the chamber.
On the other hand, I could support the proposal of the rapporteur of the general budget, Jean-René Cazeneuve (Renaissance), to renew for one year the solidarity contribution on the profits of energy companies.
Towards a budget deficit of less than 3% in 2027
In the PS, Christine Pirès Beaune will resume her confrontation on the care of people in nursing homes, after her success in the commission. She calls for replacing a tax reduction with a tax credit, accessible to the most modest.
But amendments that “break the balance” of the budget will not be accepted, warned Thomas Cazenave, eager to present to the European Commission and the rating agencies a “serious path” to place the public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2027. (2.7%), with a step to 4.4% from 2024.
The government is at a crossroads between its economic promises, investments in the ecological transition, fuel subsidies and an increase in the number of civil servants. Its growth forecast, of 1.4% of GDP in 2024, is also considered “high” by the Higher Council of Public Finance.
The Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, wanted one billion euros of additional savings to be included in the 2024 budget “at the end of parliamentary work”, in addition to the approximately 16 billion provided for by the government text.
Source: BFM TV
