Economic activity in France should continue to grow slightly in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months, between 0.1% and 0.2%, in a context of slowing inflation, the Bank of France indicated on Wednesday .
This modest growth expected from October to December would occur after the 0.1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded in the third quarter, although the monetary institution emphasizes that this first estimate is subject to “a wide margin of uncertainty.” .
In the final quarter, activity would be supported by market services and a slight rebound in the manufacturing industry, after “a small hole” in the summer, he added.
According to some 8,500 business owners surveyed between October 27 and November 6, activity increased slightly in October in industry, services and construction finishing work.
Erosion of order books and high stocks
For November, they foresee a continuation of this growth in services, at a moderate pace, while activity would change little in industry and construction. However, it does not bode well for activity in the coming months, as order books continue to erode in industry and construction, while stocks of finished goods are still considered high.
As employment dynamics lose strength, hiring difficulties decrease: in October they affected 44% of companies, compared to 49% the previous month. The Banque de France forecasts growth of 0.9% for 2023 and 2024.
As for prices, “the trend towards normalization is confirmed (…)”, with price increases “close to pre-Covid levels”, according to Garnier. In industry, where supply difficulties are stabilizing, business leaders have cited a further decline in raw material prices.
Thus, 6% of manufacturers declared that they had increased their prices in October, compared to 23% a year earlier. Six percent lowered them; Price reductions were even proportionally larger than increases in the agri-food sector.
Source: BFM TV
