Portugal’s unemployment rate will have ended its downward cycle, which lasted until the second quarter of last year, when it reached one of the lowest values in recent history (5.9% of the active population), and is currently back above the 6% remains. the third quarter (equal to the value recorded in the previous quarter).
But the above national overall figure is clearly driven by a very significant increase in unemployment among young people (under 25 years), according to the National Institute of Statistics’ (INE) new quarterly employment survey, unveiled yesterday.
The unemployment rate among the very young (under 25 years old) once again exceeded the 20% threshold.
According to INE, the number of unemployed people in this age group increased by more than 20% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2022, for a total of 80.6 thousand young people without work, but who were available and actively looking for a job. track.
This deterioration among young people is comparable to the 4.4% increase in the total number of unemployed, which has been increasing for at least four consecutive quarters and means that more than 326 thousand people are now officially without work in Portugal.
Half of the jobs created are insecure
Looking at the employment side, official INE data confirm that another, more negative phenomenon, namely insecurity, is growing and is also closely linked to young people.
Data from the third quarter reinforces the idea that, while it is true that the Portuguese economy continues to create jobs and reach successive historical highs, the share of precarious employment contracts (fixed-term contracts, fake green slips) continues to rise unstoppably.
Total employment reached a new high in the INE series and now stands at almost 4.3 million workers in the third quarter (up 2.9% year-on-year), but this increase hides several realities.
It is true that indefinite-term contracts have increased by 1.7% over the period examined, but the number of people hired for a fixed period has increased by no less than 8.1% and the group of ‘other contracts’ (which most precarious) of all) increased by 12%.
This means that the Portuguese economy managed to create a net 119.5 thousand jobs in one year (ending in the third quarter of this year), but that more than half of these jobs created (about 60.4 thousand cases ) are insecure or very insecure jobs. insecure.
Fixed-term recruitment, which includes fixed-term contracts, seasonal work and casual or occasional work, now amounts to 626 thousand employees (reflecting the year-on-year increase of 8.1%).
In the category ‘other types of contracts’, the most precarious of the precarious, which includes, for example, ‘false green income’, the 12% increase increases this quota to 126 thousand cases.
In total, it can be said that there are currently at least 752 thousand precarious workers in Portugal. According to calculations by Dinheiro Vivo, this universe has increased by 9% compared to a year ago.
Inflection point
As mentioned, the weight of unemployment in the total active population (the percentage) and the number of unemployed started to increase slightly in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, which could mark a turning point in the labor market, which has so far managed to alleviate this problem, points out INE.
The unemployment rate remained the same between the second and third quarters, at 6.1% of the active population, but on an annual basis the indicator increased by 0.1 percentage points (pp) (i.e. compared to the third quarter of 2022).
Also according to the institute “the unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2023 was higher than the national average (6.1%) in two NUTS II regions of the country (North: 6.7%; Lisbon Metropolitan Area: 6.6% )”.
And it was below average “in the remaining five regions (Autonomous Region of the Azores: 6%; Alentejo: 5.9%; Centre: 5%; Algarve: 4.8%; Autonomous Region of Madeira: 4.8%) “.
On an annual basis, the burden of unemployment is noticeably worsening in the Alentejo and the north of the country.
“An increase in this indicator was observed in four regions, the largest of which was in Alentejo (1.5 percentage points)”, to which can be added the increase of 0.8 tenth in the north.
In the opposite direction, there were “declines in the Lisbon metropolitan area (1.2 percentage points) and in the Autonomous Region of Madeira (1.4 percentage points), with no year-on-year changes observed in the unemployment rate in the autonomous region Region of the Azores”, according to official statistics from the new employment survey.
Also according to INE, the unemployed population will now number about 326.1 thousand people (from July to September), that is to say: “it has increased by 0.5% (1.4 thousand cases) compared to the previous quarter and by 4.4% (13.7 thousand) compared to the counterparty”.
Less employment for the less educated
In terms of employment, indicators remain positive, but here too there are signs of less momentum, reflecting the decline in activity in the third quarter.
It is worth remembering that the Portuguese economy has surprised several analysts, registering a real decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.2% between the second and third quarters, the first contraction since the beginning of 2021.
Overall, employment continues to resist between the second and third quarters, but increases by only 0.5% in the third quarter, at least crossing the five million jobs threshold. But a year ago, the quarterly increase in these summer months was more than double (1.1%).
The year-on-year increase was 2.2% between the third quarter of 2022 and the same period this year.
INE says that “in the third quarter of 2023, the employed population (5.015 million people) increased by 0.5% (26.8 thousand) compared to the previous quarter and by 2.2% (109.2 thousand) compared to same quarter of 2022”.
However, it is necessary to see that the economy of most of the working population, which is the least qualified (about a third have the lowest level of education, at the turn of the year or less, almost 1.8 million people), is already broken . jobs and many, with the relevant indicator falling by almost 2% year-on-year among those with lower education. We’re talking about 34.1 fewer jobs in just one year.
In any case, it offset the increase in employment of people with a completed secondary education (6.4% more) and higher education (2.9%), confirming the idea so often promoted by government and economists that it having more qualifications pays off in terms of working conditions. employment and protects people from possible unemployment situations.
Dinheiro Vivo journalist
Source: DN
