The energy transition will cause a loss of 13 billion euros in state revenue until 2030, in taxes on fuel, and 30 billion euros until 2050, estimates the General Directorate of the Treasury in a report that will be published on Tuesday.
The exit from fossil fuels implies a reduction in taxes on these energies: without changes, they could be eroded “by 13 billion euros by 2030 and 30 billion euros by 2050”, estimates the Treasury in this report, intermediary of the study about “the economy.” Issues of the transition towards carbon neutrality” which will be published in 2024.
This document is published on the occasion of the Bercy Meetings dedicated on Tuesday to the topic “Growth and climate”.
These figures are part of the scenario of global warming limited to 1.5°, for which France and the European Union have committed to reducing their net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990. and to carbon neutrality in 2050.
No more urban tolls
The report observes that the Scandinavian countries, whose electrification of the vehicle fleet began earlier, are already facing this phenomenon of income erosion, and that “several European countries are responding by further mobilizing other sources of income within the road sector”, such as urban roads. tolls or reducing subsidies for electric vehicles as their purchase price falls.
Furthermore, the report estimates that an additional €110 billion per year (gross, compared to 2021) in public and private investments will be needed for decarbonization projects. It does not yet have an estimate for 2050.
At the same time, climate-unfriendly investments could be reduced, by 37 billion per year in 2030, for example, thanks to the rise of electric vehicles and efforts towards sobriety.
Despite these costs, Treasury management reminds “that, in the long term, the transition will be beneficial for the economy and well-being” compared to the status quo, and strongly recommends strong anticipation of the measures to be taken.
The Bercy meetings will bring together several ministers on Tuesday at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire (Economy), Agnès Pannier-Runacher (Energy Transition) and Christophe Béchu (Ecological Transition), with experts such as Bill Gates, co-president of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, or Jean Pisani-Ferry, co-author of a report published in spring on “the economic impacts of climate action”
Source: BFM TV
