The two options identified as feasible by the Independent Technical Commission (CTI) for a new airport, Alcochete and Vendas Novas together with Humberto Delgado, imply an investment of 8,258 million and 8,170 million euros respectively.
These values have been included in the financial assessment carried out on the different strategic options for the location of the new Lisbon Airport, the preliminary report of which was presented by CTI in Lisbon on Tuesday.
In the central scenario considered in the same study, the estimated revenues for the Alcochete (CTA) option with Humberto Delgado Airport (AHD), until it is possible to move to a single infrastructure, indicate values of 2,724 million euros within the scope of the non-regulated activity and of 12.045 million euros from the regulated activity (aviation).
With the New Sale option (VNO) with AHD, the revenues from unregulated and regulated activities amount to 2,661 million and 11,937 million euros respectively.
Both therefore have a positive net present value (NPV) of around six billion euros, and this characteristic is common to all options analyzed; that is, the analysis shows that all options are financially feasible.
The same study shows that the Montijo (MTJ) option with AHD has a higher NPV compared to the other options (about 8,400 million euros), but CTI notes that this is due to the fact that it is “an investment that is substantially lower” and that “the constraint of not fully meeting demand in the 2040s”.
For the Montijo with AHD option, the required investment is 3,806 million euros, but for the others there are four involving an investment of around eight billion euros, and three that exceed nine billion euros.
The financial analysis also shows that dual options “consistently demonstrated a higher NPV” compared to greenfield options (building from scratch), with this difference explained by investment costs.
‘Double options maintain a positive NPV even considering a period of only 39 years [final do contrato de concessão da ANA]” says the study, which indicates that if the horizon up to 2050 is considered, the “superiority of the dualities is more pronounced.”
Dual options have a positive VAL of approximately one billion euros and ‘greenfield’ options have a negative VAL of one billion euros, or a difference of approximately two billion euros.
CTI estimates the value of Portela land after reconversion at 139 ME
The technical committee for the new airport estimates that the land at the current airport in Lisbon could be worth 509.6 million euros, but discounting the costs of the demolition operation translates into a net present value of 139 million euros.
The data is included in the preliminary report of the Independent Technical Commission (CTI), responsible for the strategic environmental assessment for increasing airport capacity in the Lisbon region, which studied nine options, presented today in Lisbon.
According to an appendix dedicated to the economic study of the deactivation and renaturalization of Humberto Delgado Airport (AHD), coordinated by economist Fernando Alexandre, the CTI estimates that “the market value of land considered developable in the current AHD is 509.6 million euros amounts”. .
However, it calculates that the cost, at current values, of the demolition and renaturalization works of the remaining area represents 342.1 million euros, which for the central scenario means a net present value (NPV) of the global operation of 167.5 million euros. million euros.
“This value represents an asymmetric risk distribution. The expected value for the VAL resulting from the simulation model is 139 million euros, taking into account the risks of possible deviations,” he adds.
The study points out that “the probability of cost overruns is greater than the probability of being lower than estimated, or, as another example, the risk associated with decontamination can lead to significantly higher values” since “only after carrying out a ‘due care’ [diligências prévias] technique, can be quantified with greater precision”.
Alcochete and Vendas Novas are the two options identified by the independent technical committee as feasible for a new airport, together with Humberto Delgado, until it is possible to move to a single infrastructure, it was announced today by the CTI.
A Council of Ministers resolution adopted last year defined the creation of a CTI to analyze five hypotheses for Lisbon’s airport solution, but predicted that other options could be added, which happened.
The report will be subject to public consultation for 30 working days, after which the CTI will present the final report.
Source: DN
