The surplus on government accounts (measured in cash accounting) rose to a significant 6,387 million euros in the period from January to November, more than three times the value (year-on-year increase of 244%) recorded a year earlier , according to figures Minister of Finance, Fernando Medina, in a note sent to the newsrooms this Friday.
It is the largest year-end surplus recorded in the series of the Directorate General of the Budget (DGO), consulted by Dinheiro Vivo (DV), dating back to 2013.
Since 2013, government accounts have shown an accumulated surplus in November only twice before. In November 2019, when the surplus for the 11 months of that year amounted to 575 million euros.
And in November last year, when the positive balance on the accounts reached an impressive 1,855 million euros.
The updated DGO figures reinforce expectations that the government will even be able to achieve a historic surplus (in the national accounts, which apply to Brussels), an unprecedented maximum equivalent to 0.8% of gross domestic product ( GDP). , as the government predicts, or even higher, as the Bank of Portugal expected this month, indicating a record positive balance of 1.1% of GDP.
According to the note from Medina’s office, “Government departments reported from a public accounting perspective [de caixa, diferença entre entradas e saída efetivas de valores]an adjusted budget balance of 6,387 million euros until November (+172 million euros compared to October and +4,306 million euros compared to the same month in 2022)”.
The adjusted balance means that it was deducted from the very high amount of additional revenue brought in by the integration of the Caixa Geral de Depósitos Pension Fund into the public accounts. At the beginning of this year, this CGD fund was transferred to Caixa Geral de Aposentações (CGA), increasing state revenues by another three billion euros at once due to the responsibilities of paying pensions in the future.
The Financial Note explains that the strong annual increase in the budget balance (surplus) reflects “a 10.4% improvement in effective revenues, in adjusted terms, largely due to the resilience of the labor market ( + 14.7% of the IRS and +10.7% of social contributions)” and is the result of “an increase in effective expenditure by 5.8%, which rises to 8% if adjusted for the effect of the Covid -19 measures and the impact of the geopolitical shock”.
“The impact of the measures related to the geopolitical shock amounted to 2,661 million euros until November. Of this amount, 1,155 million euros are measures with impact on the expenditure side, highlighting the extraordinary support for the most vulnerable families, including support for children and young people and support for agricultural production sectors,” the Ministry of Finance said.
“On the revenue side, an impact of approximately 1,507 million euros is highlighted, with a focus on measures to reduce taxes on fuel and food.”
Source: DN
