The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday called the move away from fossil fuels a “fantasy,” estimating that demand for oil will continue to grow at least until 2050, a symbolic milestone in the fight against climate change.
According to the 2024 edition of its World Oil Demand Outlook, OPEC forecasts demand to rise by 17% between 2023 and 2050, from 102.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 120.1 mb/d at the end of the period.
The organization has significantly revised upwards its projection for 2045 to 118.9 mb/d from 116 mb/d in the previous edition of its report.
“These forecasts underline that the fantasy of a gradual exit from oil and gas is not consistent with reality,” said the Saudi-led organisation, which is highly critical of the pace of the energy transition.
These forecasts go against the efforts needed to limit global warming.
They are also far behind the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicts a peak in demand for all fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – “in the coming years” of the current decade, thanks to the shift to cleaner energy and electric cars.
Strong growth in gas and renewables
Last year at COP28 in Dubai, the world agreed to phase out fossil fuels and triple renewable capacity by 2030, with the aim of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, in line with recommendations from climate experts.
OPEC, for its part, sees no decline other than that of coal demand and is counting on, in addition to oil, a sharp rise in global appetite for gas, behind wind and solar combined, which it sees growing fivefold over the period 2023-2050.
However, the evolution of oil demand is very heterogeneous: its growth is driven by non-OECD countries, primarily India, while it will decline from 2030 onwards among OECD countries (mainly developed countries). India alone is expected to see its demand increase by 8 mb/d over the period 2023-2050.
Among the main factors supporting this demand for oil and energy in general, the increase in the world population stands out, which is expected to rise from around 8 billion inhabitants today to 9.7 billion in 2050, a growth again driven by non-OECD countries, particularly in Africa and Asia.
From a sector perspective, “the largest increase in demand over the forecast period is forecast for the petrochemical, road transport and aviation sectors,” the report said.
Despite the rise of electric cars, OPEC believes that thermal vehicles “should continue to dominate road transport”.
Source: BFM TV
