Despite slowing inflation, low unemployment and a bigger budget, the American consumer is expected to remain selective during the traditional “Black Friday” sales period in late November, focusing on the best deals. American consumers “are willing to open their wallets,” estimates the professional association Conference Board.
A sentiment shared by Morgan Stanley, which expects certain categories, particularly services, to continue to be neglected in favor of products and equipment, because “consumers remain selective.” According to a survey by the investment bank, around 35% of consumers plan to spend more than in 2023, but 64% of respondents will keep their dollars if the promotions are not generous enough, that is, greater than 20%.
The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1% and, although inflation rose slightly in October to +2.6% year-on-year compared to +2.4% in September, it is much less marked than the maximum of +9 .1% reached in June 2022. The truth is that prices increased by more than 20% during Joe Biden’s presidency, in a context of global inflation after the Covid-19 pandemic.
The economy was a pillar of the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who won the race for the White House by emphasizing an argument focused on the cost of living. This election should not influence the holiday elections.
Customs tariffs
On the other hand, if the increase in customs duties promised by the president-elect materializes, it would be reflected in prices. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), this could erode Americans’ purchasing power by up to $78 billion a year.
Although it is among the concerns of merchants, this possible increase in customs duties does not yet worry consumers, who should therefore not anticipate purchases this year, Saunders emphasizes. The traditional Christmas shopping season in the United States – from November 1 to December 31 – is characterized in 2024 by a very late “Black Friday” (November 29), which shortens the crucial period between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
But what a few years ago would have represented a great challenge in logistics and stock management, seems less arduous because promotions with the “Black Friday” seal, or with its flavor, were launched in advance, sometimes even in October. especially on the internet. This is particularly the case for supermarket chains Walmart and Target, electronics Best Buy and Home Depot DIY. Amazon started on Thursday.
The NRF forecasts a 2.5% to 3.5% year-over-year increase in spending related to the year-end holidays, reaching between $980 billion and $990 billion. It should be higher on the Internet, around 8% to 9%, to get closer to 300 billion. With, for some Internet users, the help of artificial intelligence to find the best offer or the best gift. This period includes “Cyber Week”, with the big promotional days of “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”.
Over the years, they have increasingly become “seasonal promotions, a more extended period, starting very early and ending on Cyber Monday,” says Saunders, noting that merchants prefer this because it makes it easier for them the management. sales, hiring, etc. And avoid the terrifying images showing hordes of shoppers pouring into stores in search of bargains, after hours of waiting huddled at the doors.
Source: BFM TV
