Commercial failures increased by 2% in the first quarter for a year

Commercial failures in France increased by 2% in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024, the notes on Monday Alliance of Allianz, before a probable “new historical record this year aggravated by the risk of commercial war.” However, the new collective procedures are reduced by 1.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to these economists. “The fault acceleration peak seems to be exceeded, with a gradual influence on the rooms,” observes the study: +2% in the first quarter, after +9% in the 2024 and +17% room in the third.

In fact, for Maxime Lemerle, responsible for default research in Allianz, “the challenges faced by companies remain numerous: weakness of the cycle cycle, end/reimbursement of aid, the resumption of tasks by fiscal and social services, geopolitical uncertainty.” To what is now added “the risk that the commercial war launched by the United States pushes bankruptcies to more than 68,000 and 65,000 cases for 2025 and 2026 respectively”, in front of the initial forecasts of the Allianz trade of 67,500 in 2025 and 64,900 in 2026.

Marked increase in storage and construction transport

The study states that no corporate size escapes the increase in failures “, and observes that at the end of March,” all companies breached for which financial data is available represent still very high levels of accumulated billing “(33.7 billion euros, or +6% for a year) and responsibilities towards their suppliers (6.4 billion euros, or +11%).

No sector escapes the increase in failures, and almost all are above the average sinister since 2010. In the last twelve months, the increase is very marked in storage transport (+23%), construction (+19%) and information/communication (+17%). In number, it is the construction (+2298 companies) that is the most disaster victim with 22% of bankruptcies, ahead of commercial services (+956), accommodation/catering (+751) and finance/real estate (+607). The number of transport/storage failures, during the year, is 56% higher than the average 2010-2019.