Two nuclear powers again on the edge of war. Everything went very fast in the space of a week after the murder of 25 Indian tourists in this region in dispute. Delhi accuses Islamabad of supporting alleged terrorists. He has followed from a spiral of measures and supports of reprisals.
Eviction of diplomats, nationals of the two nations now non -pleasant characters in the neighboring territory … The climb seems inexorable. To the point that the countries in the region are worried. Chinese diplomacy demands appeasement.
Towards a military conflict?
Should we fear an armed conflict, even a nuclear climb? “It gets nuclear not to use it,” they say. The idea is to deter to avoid a large -scale war with precision. According to Jean-Luc Racine, specialist in relations between India and Pakistan.
The Pakistani defense believes that an Indian strike is imminent. It could intervene within the next 24 or 36 hours, depending on its intelligence services. An incursion is not to exclude whether the most likely scenario remains that of the armed responses calibrated on both sides.
Narendra Modi, who has been very virulent since the beginning of this matter, has been confused to retaliate by force, said an American researcher.
On each side of the control line that divides the Kashmir, the population retains its breath. Residents prepare their bunkers.
Water stake
What also worries particularly is the threat of an aquatic war. Delhi unilaterally suspended the Water Treaty sharing a Cross -Border River. The Indo who takes the source in the Himalayas, crosses the Indian territory and ends in Pakistan. It is vital for agriculture in this country that represents a quarter of its GDP. Any reduction in the flow would have dramatic consequences.
Indian authorities threaten not to miss a drop of water. But do the technical means, in the short term, to do it? It is unlikely according to experts. If the strategy is to raise the tension, it works. Any embezzlement of water funds by India would constitute an “act of war,” Islamabad warns.
Since their independence almost 80 years ago, the two nations have delivered three wars to puppy in the context of identity, territorial and religious rivalries. The current climb has been the most serious for years. Neither Narendra Modi, nor the Pakistani generals, participated in a demonstration of force, intends to give in.
Source: BFM TV
