The United States is trying to press China to temper Iran’s response to the strikes that went to its nuclear facilities. The United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, called Beijing this Sunday, June 22 to press Tehran so that the Ormuz Strait does not close, where 20% of world oil and gas production spends.
This scenario, which does not materialize at the moment, could lead to a black gold prices outbreak. According to Deutsche Bank’s calculations, a close closure for two months could carry the prices of the Brent barrel to $ 124 in the third quarter of 2025. This level has not been reached since 2012 (the historical record is $ 145 per barrel in July 2008).
However, many analysts believe that China would not let them block the Ormuz Strait.
“Iran will not be able to close the Ormuz Strait without a plan B to continue providing China,” TankerTrackers said, specializing in the monitoring of oil exports, in X.
A blockade in this narrow maritime passage would be particularly problematic for China, while most of the oil (84%) that passes through the Ormuz Strait is intended for the Asian continent according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
China imported 5.4 million barrels/cross the raw day in the first quarter in the first quarter. Saudi Arabia was its second largest black gold supplier last year, with 1.6 million barrels/day, 15% of its total imports, according to EIA.
Oil sent by the phantom fleet
Above all, China absorbs more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports, according to Kpler. Beijing is one of the few countries to buy at the Iranian Napthe, while this product has been beaten by US sanctions since 2018 and the unilateral withdrawal of the United States of the Iranian nuclear Vienne agreement by Donald Trump.
For China, this oil has a remarkable advantage: it is cheaper than the oil purchased in the classic market. Given the sanctions, Iran sells it with a discount, which was estimated at $ 5 per barrel for Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler analyst, in a BBC article Last year. Since then, this discount has fallen to be around $ 2 per barrel according to the Wall Street Journal.
To avoid sanctions, the “Ghost Flot” transports to the “Ghost Fleet”, that is, through the smuggling oil tankers to the Southeast Asia, where the loads are transfined to the Chinese ships.
Brut Oil finally landed in independent refineries, called “Teters”, especially in the province of Shandong, south of Beijing, to be transformed.
Therefore, Iranian oil converts a complete economy, which could weaken if Iranian oil was lost, in the case of blocking the Ormuz Strait or strikes on the island of Kharg. In general, significant interruptions in energy markets would reduce their growth in their growth.
In general, Chinese interests, therefore, reside instead of “in a high fire, not in a broader war. I don’t think the Chinese support Iranian strikes against the United States,” says Bonnie Glaser, director of the Indo-Pacific program in the German Marshall background, in the New York Times. China was content to publicly criticize the US initiative.
Iran depends on China
In this case, China and Iran do not trade with it. On the contrary, it is a very asymmetric relationship. Very dependent on its oil income, the Islamic Republic depends largely on its first client, while Iranian oil represents “only” 10% of the consumption of black gold in China.
Clearly, for your oil, Beijing can replace Tehran (even if it is probably expensive), but the opposite is less true. Therefore, this gives the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (PCCH) an average pressure of pressure on mullahs to encourage them to encode their reaction to the US offensive and preserve their interests.
In fact, many observers, therefore, believe that Iran has no interest in blocking the Ormuz Strait.
Scrambled but not blocking
Basically, these threats can respond to another logic. Javier Blas, the Bloomberg columnist on raw materials, indicates in X that he continues to think that the closure of the narrow closure, formulated by Iranian “officials”, are mainly used to make oil prices rise and, therefore, to fill the empty funds of Iran, but that the words that pass to the acts would harm Iran and “China, their largest oil client.” This analysis is confirmed by the company’s tanks.
At the moment, the analysis still does not report a sign in the Strait. “Several oil tankers crossed the Ormuz Strait this morning, when arriving at the beginning. No disturbances were observed. The oil load in several ports in the Persian Gulf seems normal. Exports last week are even higher than those of the beginning of June,” observes Javier Blas de Bloomberg, this Monday, June 23.
On the other hand, the Windward Maritime Intelligence Agency reports that GPS stir in the Ormuz Strait from the beginning of the war between Iran and Israel.
Windward also reports a clear increase in insurance premiums that can represent an additional cost of additional $ 1.2 million per trip.
Source: BFM TV
