The sum is astronomical. An estimate led by Bloomberg figure at $ 1,500 billion the cost of a conflict between Russia and NATO countries only during the first year. A large -scale war could reduce the world’s GDP by 1.3%.
An estimate that intervenes in a context in which the heads of state of the 32 NATO countries meet this week to establish investment criteria for defense to protect themselves against Russian threat. Last week, on the occasion of the International Economic Forum held in Saint-Petersburg, the Kremlin chief once again launched a provocation.
For his part, Mark Rutte, the NATO general secretary, wanted to dramatize the participation of this week’s summit, which is held in Hague in the Netherlands by indicating that a Russian attack against the Atlantic Alliance could be provided by Moscow within five years given the rapid acceleration of the production of the military-industrial complex. NATO has also requested possible for 5 years according to NATO: a conflict between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance would cost its members $ 1,500 billion to multiply its anti -viones and antimile defense capabilities by five.
Bloomberg Economics evaluations integrate the increase in defense spending, impact measures on destruction and loss of production in affected areas, consequences on supply chains, especially European, the increase in energy prices after the reduction of oil and gas exports, volatility and falls in financial markets.
Cascade consequences
Bloomberg evokes a scenario that would first affect the Baltic countries, therefore, it is likely that it invokes article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which establishes that any attack on one of the NATO countries “will be considered as an attack on all parties” and, therefore, implements the principle of solidarity.
Beyond the armed response of NATO countries, it is likely that the consequences of an attack against Baltic countries touch the entire European continent, either by fire in missiles or “hybrid” attacks, affecting military bases or strategic infrastructure, such as submarine cables, energy constructions, ports, causes in cascade for the world economy.
GENERAL GDP
According to Bloomberg, an otan-russia conflict could reduce the GDP of the Baltic countries from 43.4%, the world level of GDP could flank in 1.3%. In comparison, says Bloomberg, world GDP would have decreased by 1%during the Gulf War, the Ukraine War caused a fall in world GDP by 1.5%, while the Financial COVVI-19 2009 financial crisis caused global GDP decreased by 5.9%.
European GDP would continue to be a 1.2%decrease.
As for Russian GDP, it would only have a 1%drop, according to Bloomberg calculations, “a relatively lower blow since the sanctions have isolated it and the expenses are higher, creating a mirage of economic health.”
Bloomberg also indicates that Russian artillery production, drones and missiles can soon exceed the need for soldiers deployed in Ukraine.
Source: BFM TV
