“The only certainty is uncertainty.” It is because of this prayer that Olivier Apppert concluded that he spoke to open the Europ’energies 2025 forum. The advisor of the IFRI Energy Center (French Institute of International Relations) has particularly insisted on the strong destabilization of the energy context from the return of Donald Trump to the White House, while “energy will play a determining role in the new energy relations that establish” according to the expert. Despite this environmental volatility, some experts present at the event anticipate a decrease in energy prices in the coming months.
However, it recognizes that several events feed the volatility of the current, such as customs rates that have an impact on energy demand, difficulties in implementing the green agreement, regulatory or legislative problems linked to universal nuclear payments (VNU) or multiple energy programming (PPE) in France, the return of corrosion under restriction (CSC) incidents of the giant image of the electrical fault in the sominge.
Low gas application
With respect to Gas, Purenergy Associates estimates that MWH’s price could be 40 euros per MWh in 2025, and then fall to 30.8 euros per MWH the following year. For its part, Joanna Juszczak of the Axpo Solutions energy supplier even provides a MWH gas price at 37.2 euros.
Thierry Lesaffre highlights an industrial gas application that will remain weak in Europe but also in Asia due to the commercial war. The hypothesis of a moderate winter also allows for low residential demand. To this low request, the increase in renewable energy is added. Regarding the supply, the conflict between Israel and Iran should have a limited impact in the eyes of the specialist. “The gradual judgment of Russian gas deliveries will be compensated with an increase in LNG volumes, especially American and Qatari, he adds.
Increased uncertainties in black gold
Perspectives are relatively similar to electricity that should experience an “quite low” industrial demand in Europe. In addition, Thierry Lesaffre believes that the absence of a global vision will delay the electrification of needs and, therefore, will even generate more uncertainty about electrical demand. “In the offer, one of the risks is the discovery of CSC in a reactor of the Civaux Energy Station, but there will not be a significant impact thanks to the learning of the episode 2-3 years ago, he explains. However, the battery-type storage means that it develops quite slowly due to the lack of visibility.”
These forecasts push the consulting firm to Purenengy Associates to have an electricity price around 62.5 euros per MWh this year, which would fall at 58.3 euros in 2026, a level close to 2024. Axpo Solutions AG sees the price of the MWR of slightly higher electricity in 2025, at 64.35 euros.
With respect to oil, Axpo Solutions AG anticipates a price for a Brent barrel below $ 69 in 2025 when Purenengy Associate 5 In the price of 10 in the 10 attacks, but the geopolitical context creates the imminent, Olivier’s notes that evoke a risk risk of 5 in the price of 10 in the 10 pains.
Source: BFM TV
