The Savings Seller Best, the brochure is likely to be disappointed in the coming weeks. Hold on more than 56 million French, the performance of the “small red brochure” will probably fall until August 1 to fall below 2%.
“With an extremely low inflation rate with the fall in the ECB rates, we must be 1.6 or 1.7%,” against 2.4% currently, explains Philippe Crevel, economist and president of the savings circle. It would be the second consecutive review after a first in February when the brochure rate had increased from 3 to 2.4%.
Therefore, the performance of the savings product more owned in France would be almost divided by two in the six -month space. For a Livret A on the ceiling (22,950 euros), this would represent a deficit of 160.65 euros during the year.
This is at least what will happen if the government follows the usual rate to calculate the rate, namely, the average inflation excluding tobacco and ester rate (short -term rate in the euro zone) in the last six months, knowing that inflation has clearly slowed down in recent months. Excluding tobacco, its average was 0.8%.
LEP rate still above 2%
As a reminder, brochure A is reviewed twice a year, on February 1 and August 1. It is the governor of the banquera of France who, after the calculation formula mentioned above, recommends the new rate to apply to the Government. The Minister of the Economy, whose decision must be taken earlier next week, is free to follow these recommendations or not. Note that this will also refer to the sustainable and supportive development brochure (LDDS) whose performance is identical to the Brochure A.
The rate of the popular savings book (LEP) intended for the most modest is established at the highest level between the inflation rate and the brochure rate has increased by 0.5 points. Inflation is low is the second formula that will be applied, which would be equivalent to applying a rate of 2.1 or 2.2%, against 3.5% currently. “However, as in the previous reviews, the government may not strictly follow the formula and establish a rounded rate at 2.5%” to support small savers, judges Philippe Crevel, which would result in a deficit of 65.80 euros per year compared to January for a LEP on the roof of 10,000 euros.
However, the economist recalls that “the real performance of the book to remain positive, inflation remained low in recent months. It should increase approximately one point, which constitutes a relatively high level compared to the average of the last ten years. For the LEP, the real performance could be around two points.”
Towards a fall in the savings rate?
With this second consecutive decrease in brochure A rate, “the government expects a drop in the savings rate”, which remains at a historically high level (18.8%), for the benefit of a consumption recovery, explains Philippe Crevel. But for him “it won’t be enough.”
During the previous decrease in its rate in February “we noticed a fall in the collection of the brochure, therefore, the effect of the rate” is undeniable. But the savings rate is still high. Savings are rather towards life insurance, “recalls the economist. Net life of life insurance has reached a higher level for 16 years in May. The outstanding brochure A itself remains at the record level, with more than 445 billion euros.
Source: BFM TV
