Who will be the best losers in the old continent? On Sunday, July 27, the United States and the European Union (EU) finally concluded a commercial agreement of customs duties. Although Donald Trump threatened to tax European exports to 30% as of August 1, customs tariffs will finally be 15% for all EU countries.
More or less exporters to the United States, EU member countries will not be penalized in the same way when the measurement enters into force on August 1.
In particular value, it is, with much, Germany the most affected by this new agreement. It exports the largest amount of goods to the United States, for an amount of $ 161.2 billion in 2024, followed by Ireland and Italy, respectively $ 72 and 64 billion, according to Eurostat data.
France is less exposed, but the champions of food and luxury will be particularly affected.
More 20% of European exports to the United States
According to Eurostat, 20.6%of EU’s exported goods are intended for the United States, far ahead of the United Kingdom (13.2%) and China (8.3%).
The EU as a whole has published a commercial surplus on goods compared to the United States of 235.6 billion dollars (201.5 billion euros), according to the Office of Economic Analysis (BEA), which depends on the United States Department of Commerce and published its statistics by 2024 in early February. Only China shows a larger amount.
Ireland releases the broader commercial surplus
Ireland records the widest commercial surplus of EU members with a value of $ 86.7 billion. It is in the United States that Ireland exports more than a quarter of its products.
This is explained in particular by the establishment in Ireland of large American groups, especially pharmaceutical products, such as Pfizer, Eli Lilly or Johnson & Johnson, which were established in this European country to benefit from a 15% tax on large companies, against 21% in the United States.
Therefore, these companies can accommodate their patents in Ireland and sell in the US market, where medications prices are traditionally higher than in the rest of the world.
However, Donald Trump specified on Sunday that the pharmaceutical sector would not benefit from special customs tasks. It should be said that on the EU scale, medical and pharmaceutical products are among the most exported European goods to the United States: 22.5% of exported products, far ahead of road vehicles (9.6%), according to Eurostat data.
Ireland also thanks the majority of the European seats of American “technology” giants on their ground, such as Apple, Google or Meta, also seduced by attractive Irish taxes.
Germany, the industrial champion
The first EU economy, Germany, launched a record commercial surplus in 2024 with the United States reaching $ 84.8 billion.
The United States only absorbed 10.5% of German exports, according to the Office of German Statistics. Americans like the automotive brands of Germany, but also the pharmaceutical tools and products “made in Germany.”
The German Central Bank warned at the beginning of the year that the taxes of US customs tasks in German products could reduce the country’s gross domestic product by 1%.
Italy and France, in the second curtain
Italy and France, with 44 billion dollars respectively and $ 16.4 billion in excess according to Americans (but for France a deficit of a few billion, according to customs statistics), it is likely to be less affected.
However, the impact varies from one sector of activity to another within each of these two economies.
The food industry and wine products would be affected in the two countries. Americans are used to consuming “made in France” products and “made in Italy”, but could increase significantly less if prices are climbing to take into account customs tariffs.
The French luxury sector (perfumes, leather items, etc.) is also very exposed.
For the luxury LVMH number one in the world, a custom of customs of 15% “would be a good result,” said the group on Thursday by publishing its half -year results, marked by a fall in net earnings and sales. He thinks he can compensate by increasing his prices and optimizing his production, especially in the United States.
Austria and Sweden, too
Austria and Sweden are also excessively with the United States, respectively 13.1 billion and $ 9.8 billion.
Source: BFM TV
