This Wednesday, August 20, the violent turbulence caused five wounds on an Air France to Ajaccio in Corsica. At the end of July, the same climate phenomenon caused the hospitalization of 25 passengers of a Delta Air Lines flight that connected Salt Lake City with Amsterdam. And examples of this type have multiplied since the beginning of the year.
These incidents sometimes have more dramatic consequences: in May 2024, a person died and thirty were injured aboard a plane from the Singapore airlines that underwent a “strong turbulence” during his flight from London to the Asian city-state.
According to official data, turbulence is the main cause of full flight accidents linked to the weather, even if the figures remain relatively low. Between 2009 and 2024, 207 people were injured during air trips with diabetes. In 2023, they represented about 40% of all accidents that involve large aircraft in regular commercial operations.
A frequency of 60 to 155%
According to Mohamed Foard, from the Reading University, there are three types of turbulence: convective turbulence, orographic waves and light air turbulence. The convective turbulence is linked to cloud currents and thunderstorms, which can be detected visually or by radar, while orographic waves take place on mountain chains.
Transparent air turbulence, on the other hand, are invisible and, therefore, more dangerous. Most of the time, they come from rapid winds from the west present in the upper atmosphere, to the same altitude as commercial airplanes (10 to 12 kilometers high).
One thing is safe, global warming increases the speed and shear of these western winds, sudden changes in vertical air currents, the famous air holes. All this triggers turbulence in transparent air.
Last year, Mohamed Fodo and his colleagues published an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research, analyzing data on turbulence from 1980 to 2021.
Another in -depth analysis granted this increase in certain more upward regions of greenhouse gas emissions.
A study published in 2023 by the University of Reading revealed that for each Celsius degree of surface heating, the winters experienced an increase of approximately 9% of the turbulence in moderate transparent air in the North Atlantic and the summers, an increase of 14%.
Winter has always been the most difficult season in terms of turbulence, but global warming is now amplifying the turbulence in the clear air in summer and autumn, thus filling the void.
Global warming, a powerful lever
West winds are not the only ones that undergo the effects of climate change, which contributes to the amplification of thunderstorms.
Faced with this disturbing phenomenon, the world of air tries to find the countermeasures and adapt. Japan and other countries want ICAO, the World Civil Aviation Organization, improves real -time coordination with the exchange of weather data and turbulence beyond borders.
Mohamed Fouda is working on the optimization of flight routes to avoid turbulence areas and improve the accuracy of forecasts.
On the passenger side, the Japanese airline, all Japanese airways now transmits a security video at the beginning and during flights to avoid accidents related to turbulence. For its part, Korean Air has ceased since August to serve instant noodles (which require boiling water) on their long distance flights, as part of the changes made in response to the increase in turbulence incidents.
The fact is that the most effective solution in case of strong turbulence so as not to be projecting on the ceiling when it is a passenger is simply staying well attached to its seat during the entire flight. Therefore, some companies intend to harden the rules of using the belt for passengers.
A laser at the head of airplanes to anticipate turbulence
Airplanes are made to resist the most aggressive turbulence, while pilots benefit from dedicated training that allows them to anticipate great dangers or adapt by changing the altitude or reducing the speed of the device.
At the same time, sensors, weather radar and the finest weather forecasts allow you to strengthen this anticipation even if there is no zero risk. New technologies allow you to go further. Boeing thus proves a laser placed at the front of the plane that can detect particles that produce turbulence at a distance of 17 kilometers.
Finally, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is also essential. Aviation is responsible for around 5 to 5% of global warming, according to the scientific consensus. But if the airlines use cleaner fuels (SAF) or new, less delicious in queroseno, progress has been “disappointing,” according to the International Air Transport Association.
Officially, this sector must be neutral in the issuance of CO2 (that is, falling to 0%) in 2050, according to the decision of the 193 states of the ICAO. The European Commission, on the other hand, imposes on the airlines different levels of SAF incorporation: 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035, etc.
But for some observers, these efforts will be in vain. Mainly in question: the continuous increase in traffic that will mechanically ruin the possible results of these initiatives.
According to a study by T&E (transport and environment), “airplanes will use more and more alternative fuels, less CO2 emitters in their life cycle. But even using 42% SAF as required by European law, the sector will burn in 2049 as fossil kerosene as in 2023”.
Source: BFM TV
