Italy has reviewed its growth forecasts down, but plans to bring its public deficit near the European objective of 3% of GDP this year, the Ministry of Economy announced Thursday.
The Government has slightly reduced its gross forecast of internal product growth (GDP) by 2025 to 0.5%, against the previously expected 0.6%, and 0.7% by 2026, against 0.8% so far, according to public finance forecasts approved on Thursday in the Council of Ministers.
The previous forecasts already included a drop in exports linked to the new American customs tasks, while Italy is the third European exporter of the United States.
Fiscal rigor policy
The public deficit is “currently” 3% by 2025 and should reach 2.8% in 2026, according to the Ministry. Italy could respect the roof of 3% established by the European Pact of Stability and Growth. He would then escape the surveillance measures of the European Commission for an excessive public deficit, which concerns France and Belgium or Hungary.
As a reminder, the Italian public deficit was still 8.1% of GDP in 2022 and 7.2% in 2023. And after a deficit that appeared at 3.4% of GDP in 2024, the Italian government predicted so far a deficit of 3.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 and 2027. The ultra -critical government of Giorgia Meloni Meloni in recent years of the last years of the last years. The country, for a long time considered too much expense, has divided its public deficit by two in just one year.
However, Italy remains much more in debt than other European countries such as France, with 135% of the gross domestic product (GDP) against 114% for its neighbor. And its medium -term perspectives are gloomy, with low productivity and a population that ages.
The Government must present these forecasts on October 9 to Italian parliamentarians, before being transmitted to the European Commission. You must also offer a budget in the coming weeks.
An “anemic growth”
The Ministry of Economy did not detail the savings he wanted to make on Thursday. However, he said he provided in particular in this budget to “reduce the weight of tax income taxes”, “stimulate commercial investments” and “increase birth support measures.”
The Fitch rating agency had already pointed out in mid -September the sovereign note of BBB Italy in BBB+ “to reflect greater confidence in the country’s budget trajectory, a week after reducing France.
The confindustry of the Union of the Italian employer confirmed Thursday in its own forecasts that the Italian economy should continue to be “anemic”, with these same 0.5% growth forecasts for 2025 and 0.7% by 2026.
The economy markedly marked a “detention” in the second quarter of 2025, when GDP fell 0.1% with the fall in exports, according to the Confindustry Study Center (CSC).
The CSC remains pessimistic due to the “Jump of US customs barriers in European products and the worsening of global geopolitical tensions (…) The perspectives are not good, since European industrial activity must gradually restore and that protectionist and geopolitical brakes seem durable.”
“The anemic growth of planned GDP for this year and next year must boost Italy to mobilize”, promoting investments, but also inviting the savings of Italian households, asks the CSC.
Source: BFM TV
