Created by the Ordinances of October 4 and 19, 1945, Social Security celebrates its 80th birthday. A symbolic anniversary of which Sébastien Lecornu intends to take advantage to “rethink our social model and the future of social protection.”
Before requesting “an important reform of social protection financing” to “reduce the weight of the samples that weigh at work and, therefore, allow, on the one hand, to increase the purchasing power of workers and, on the other hand, make our economy attractive to contribute to the effort of reindustrialization.”
The reforms, Social Security have experienced many throughout its long history: the introduction of minimum old age in 1956, the creation of the three branches of the disease, old age and family in 1967, the legal retirement age of 65 to 60 years in 1982 … but at the face of the growing financing difficulties, much less popular transformations have also been seen the day as the CSG is created from the 1993 pension reform to the 1993 account.
A “payment defect” risk of 2027
Despite these various adjustments and recovery efforts between 2010 and 2018 and then between 2020 and 2023, the financial situation of Social Security is extremely fragile today. Because its colossal expenses of 642.9 billion euros in 2024 (compared to 480 billion for state expenses in the strict sense), a quarter of the tricolor GDP, are far from being covered by their resources.
The section deficit in 2025 is thus provided by the Social Security Accounts Commission to 21.9 billion euros, or 0.7% of GDP, after 15.3 billion in 2024. Most of the deficit will come from the disease branch (-16 billion), before the branch of retreat (-7.5 billion), the family branch and autonomy is the excund.
And this should get worse in the coming years with an expected deficit at 24 billion euros by 2028, according to the Court of Auditors that denounced a “out -of -control trajectory.” If nothing is done, the deficit could even reach 3.3 GDP points in 2040 and 8.6 points in 2070, it also alerted a senatorial report, asking to return to balance no later than 2035.
This situation “led to an increasingly serious risk of liquidity crisis” with a “payment defect” that could “materialize since 2027,” warned the financial magistrates last May. “The size of the short -term capital market” to which the Social Security Financing Agency “may not be sufficient” to absorb the amount of loan you will need, they added.
Penalized health insurance for unlikely expenses and a population that ages
The main source of concern today: health insurance. With a natural increase in expenses of 4% each year, its deficit could reach 41 billion euros by 2030 if nothing is done, according to the calculations of the National Health Insurance Fund. And unpaid measures taken by recent governments have organized anything.
The State does not completely compensate the 80 billion exemptions of social security contributions that it has granted to companies, with a deficit that could reach the auditing court of up to 5.5 billion euros.
The spiny pension archive
Even if the State decided to bring these additional recipes, they would probably not be enough to restore balance, since the needs are huge due in particular to the aging of the population. “The number of people old Save our Social Protection Model. However, “the average health expenses of an 85 to 85 -year -old person are more than four times greater than those of a person between thirty and fifty years,” he adds. That is why “it is essential to anticipate it.”
The pension plan also pays the price despite successive reforms. From the first reform of 1993 to that, highly disputed, of the Government of Elisabeth Borne (2023), the legal departure age has gone from 60 to 64 years and the duration of the contribution of 37.5 to 43 years. However, the system deficit should reach 5 billion euros this year, the result of an increasingly unfavorable demography:
This is what makes some people say that retirees should make an effort and use when their standard of living is “almost equivalent” to that of the entire population, according to the Cor. A rare situation in Europe. Others defend a new increase in the initial age or by the introduction of a dose of capitalization in the system. The proposals that are not in the Sébastien Lecornu menu for whom pensions will be “a good debate for future presidential elections.”
Source: BFM TV
