Kyiv has been intensifying its attacks with Russian oil refineries and infrastructure since the beginning of August, with about thirty attacks, the last on Monday, October 6 to weaken Moscow’s ability to finance its war. kyiv’s attacks so far have been “quite effective”, the production of Russian refineries that “decreased around 10%,” explains Homayo de Hamakshahi, Kpler analyst, citing the latest available estimates. The production of refineries fell in September “of around 400,000 barrels per day” compared to the first half, with around 4.9 million barrels, Janiv Shah from Rystad Energy abounds.
What are the immediate consequences?
This decrease had repercussions on prices in the pump: on September 1, retail fuel cost 6.7% more than at the end of 2024, according to Rostat, the Russian statistics agency, despite a strong fall in the price of crude oil barrel. Given the risk of scarcity, the government has restricted exports of oil products until the end of the year, and extended the prohibition of gasoline.
This situation weighs on the economy, in difficulty, while Russia is the producer of the Third World and the second exporter of Brut, behind Saudi Arabia. Petroleum products represented more than 20% of Russian oil exports in volume in 2023. Petroleum income and gas represented approximately 30% of the country’s budget in 2024, their first source of financing, according to the Institute of Energy Studies of Oxford (IOE).
And in the long term?
Russian oil revenues are currently affected above all by falling world oil prices, in advance of an abundant offer in the coming months. But Russia’s situation could get worse because “when the infrastructure is damaged, it takes its operation for a long time,” said Janiv Shah, from Rystad Energy.
Ukraine is also “increasingly effective” in his attacks, says Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB analyst. He probably judges the complete cessation of Russian gasoline and diesel exports, before “internal rationing.” Especially since recently, the American emissary for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has not excluded kyiv’s strikes in US weapons.
Russia is trying to redirect part of black gold so that its refineries export, but faces logistics problems and a limited number of countries ready to import more volume.
According to this specialist, the trial of Ukrainian attacks could end up providing a fatal blow to Russian refineries.
Are the most effective strikes than sanctions?
Lowering Barril’s acquisition roof, a strong fall in Russian black gold purchases in the European Union: until now, international sanctions to Russian oil “do not work,” said Adi Imsirovic, director of the clean energy of Surrey.
The late application of certain sanctions also gave Vladimir Putin time to establish a parallel commercial system with ships (the Ghost fleet, the editor’s note), the financing and customers. “Even the customs tasks of 25%, which are added 25% already existing, imposed in August by Washington in many Indian products, to press New Delhi, which continues to buy Russian black gold, they have not had the expected effects.
On the other hand, with the withdrawal of Russia from Western oil companies, investment in the country’s infrastructure has decreased considerably, which limits its ability to increase its gross production in the coming years. Russia, which produces “around 9.25 million barrels per day”, would have a “maximum production capacity of 9.45 mb/d” against about 10 mb/d before the war, says Homayoun Falakshahi.
Source: BFM TV
